University Children's Hospital, Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, 20000 Podgorica, Montenegro.
Pediatr Diabetes. 2010 Sep;11(6):412-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1399-5448.2009.00617.x. Epub 2009 Nov 11.
To determine and analyze the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in 0- to 14-yr-old children in Montenegro from 1997 to 2006.
This was a prospective study. Primary case ascertainment came from a diabetes register and secondary independent data source was from prescription data. Age and sex-standardized incidence rates were calculated using direct method, assuming an equal distribution in each age/sex group. The 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated assuming the Poisson distribution. The independent effects of calendar year, two 5-yr time periods, sex and age groups were estimated with Poisson regression modeling.
During the 10-yr period, 184 new cases of type 1 diabetes were identified. Case ascertainment was 100% complete using the capture-recapture method. The mean annual standardized incidence rate over the 10-yr period was 13.4/100 000/yr (95% CI: 11.5-15.5). It increased on average by 4.6% per year (95% CI: -0.4 to -9.6%, p = 0.07). The time-period specific incidence rate from year 1997 to 2001 was significantly lower (10.8; 8.5-13.5) compared with the second period from 2002 to 2006 (16.3; 13.3-19.7), (p < 0.0001). The age-specific incidence for the 0-4-yr age group was significantly lower (8.9; 6.3-12.3) than in 5- to 9-yr age group (14.1; 10.8-18.1); and in the 10-14 yr group (17.2; 13.7-21.3) per 100,000 children.
The incidence rate in last 5 yr places Montenegro in the group of countries with moderate risk for development of type 1 diabetes in children. The average annual increase in incidence is 4.6%.
确定并分析 1997 年至 2006 年间，黑山 0 至 14 岁儿童 1 型糖尿病（T1DM）的发病率。
这是一项前瞻性研究。主要病例的确定来自糖尿病登记册，而独立的次要数据来源是处方数据。使用直接法计算年龄和性别标准化发病率，假设每个年龄/性别组的分布相等。使用泊松分布假设 95%置信区间（CI）。使用泊松回归模型估计日历年份、两个 5 年时间段、性别和年龄组的独立影响。
在 10 年期间，共发现 184 例新的 1 型糖尿病病例。使用捕获-再捕获法，病例确定率为 100%。10 年期间的平均年标准化发病率为 13.4/100000/年（95%CI：11.5-15.5）。每年平均增加 4.6%（95%CI：-0.4 至-9.6%，p=0.07）。1997 年至 2001 年期间的特定时间段发病率明显较低（10.8；8.5-13.5），而 2002 年至 2006 年期间的第二阶段则明显较高（16.3；13.3-19.7）（p<0.0001）。0-4 岁年龄组的特定年龄发病率明显较低（8.9；6.3-12.3），而 5-9 岁年龄组（14.1；10.8-18.1）和 10-14 岁年龄组（17.2；13.7-21.3）每 10 万名儿童中发病率更高。
过去 5 年的发病率使黑山处于儿童 1 型糖尿病发病风险中等的国家之列。发病率的年平均增长率为 4.6%。
