Craig Leam A
Forensic Psychology Practice Ltd., The Willows Clinic, 98 Sheffield Road, Boldmere, Sutton, Coldfield, West Midlands, United Kingdom.
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2011 Feb;55(1):75-97. doi: 10.1177/0306624X09353290. Epub 2009 Nov 18.
Although a number of research studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual offence recidivism, the effect of age on sexual and violent reconviction remains unclear, with some studies producing contradictory results. In the present study, reconviction data were obtained for 131 offenders (85 sex offenders and 46 violent offenders) followed up over a 2- and 5-year period. The sample was grouped into four age bands (i.e., ≤24, 25-34, 35-44, and ≥45 years) and rates of sexual, violent, sexual and violent (combined), and any offence reconviction were compared. There was an almost linear relationship between age and rate of reconviction, with the youngest age band (≤24 years) presenting the greatest risk of reconviction and the older age bands (≥45 years) presenting the lowest reconviction rate. At the 5-year follow-up, the youngest age band was significantly more likely to be reconvicted of sexual and violent offences (combined) than any other age band. This age band was significantly more likely to be actuarially assessed (i.e., Static-99) as high risk (controlling for age) and was more likely to target strangers, be single, and display non-sexual violence during the index offence. In relation to sexual reconviction, there was a plateau effect in the middle-age band, with the oldest age band (≥45 years) obtaining the highest sexual reconviction rate compared with all other age bands at the 5-year follow-up. Although these findings support the view that lower-aged sexual and violent offenders pose greater risk than their older-aged counterparts, this was not true for sexual reconviction at the 5-year follow-up. Implications of these findings are discussed.
尽管多项研究表明年龄与性犯罪再犯之间存在负相关关系,但年龄对性犯罪和暴力犯罪再定罪的影响仍不明确,一些研究得出了相互矛盾的结果。在本研究中,获取了131名罪犯(85名性犯罪者和46名暴力犯罪者)在2年和5年期间的再定罪数据。样本被分为四个年龄组(即≤24岁、25 - 34岁、35 - 44岁和≥45岁),并比较了性犯罪、暴力犯罪、性犯罪和暴力犯罪(综合)以及任何犯罪再定罪的发生率。年龄与再定罪率之间几乎呈线性关系,最年轻的年龄组(≤24岁)再定罪风险最高,而年龄较大的年龄组(≥45岁)再定罪率最低。在5年随访时,最年轻的年龄组比其他任何年龄组更有可能因性犯罪和暴力犯罪(综合)而再次被定罪。该年龄组在精算评估(即Static - 99)中被认定为高风险(控制年龄因素)的可能性显著更高,并且在初次犯罪时更有可能针对陌生人、单身且表现出非性暴力行为。关于性犯罪再定罪,中年年龄组存在一个平稳期效应,在5年随访时,最年长的年龄组(≥45岁)与所有其他年龄组相比,性犯罪再定罪率最高。尽管这些发现支持了低龄性犯罪和暴力犯罪者比高龄者构成更大风险的观点,但在5年随访时性犯罪再定罪情况并非如此。讨论了这些发现的意义。