Child Health Evaluative Sciences, Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Avenue, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8 Canada.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2010 Feb 15;181(4):337-43. doi: 10.1164/rccm.200907-1035OC. Epub 2009 Nov 19.
Asthma is the most common chronic respiratory disease in Canada. The estimates of risk of developing asthma may help researchers and health planners set research agendas, predict the burden of asthma on society, and target the at-risk population for asthma prevention, management, and control.
To estimate the lifetime risk of physician-diagnosed asthma.
All individuals aged 0-79 years living in Ontario, Canada on April 1, 1996 who had not been diagnosed with asthma were monitored for 11 years until March 31, 2007. They were censored when they were diagnosed with asthma, turned age 80 years, or died. The lifetime risk (from birth to age 79 yr) of physician-diagnosed asthma was calculated by a modified survival analysis technique. Results were stratified by sex, rurality, and neighborhood income.
Overall, the lifetime risk of physician-diagnosed asthma was 33.9%. Whereas the overall lifetime risk was higher in females (35.0 vs. 32.9%; P < 0.001), the cumulative risk was higher in males in early years. The lifetime risk was higher in individuals living in urban areas (34.5 vs. 30.1%; P < 0.001) or low-income neighborhoods (35.0% in the lowest income quintile vs. 32.2% in the highest; P < 0.001).
Our estimated overall lifetime risk indicates that one of every three individuals in Ontario, Canada has physician-diagnosed asthma during one's lifetime.
哮喘是加拿大最常见的慢性呼吸道疾病。估计哮喘发病风险有助于研究人员和卫生规划人员制定研究议程，预测哮喘对社会的负担，并针对哮喘高危人群进行预防、管理和控制。
估计医生诊断的哮喘终生风险。
1996 年 4 月 1 日，所有居住在加拿大安大略省、年龄在 0-79 岁之间且未被诊断患有哮喘的个人，在 11 年内被监测至 2007 年 3 月 31 日。当他们被诊断出患有哮喘、年满 80 岁或死亡时，他们就被删失。使用改良的生存分析技术计算医生诊断的哮喘终生风险（从出生到 79 岁）。结果按性别、农村和社区收入进行分层。
总体而言，医生诊断的哮喘终生风险为 33.9%。尽管女性的总体终生风险较高（35.0%比 32.9%；P < 0.001），但男性在早年的累积风险较高。居住在城市地区（34.5%比 30.1%；P < 0.001）或低收入社区（最低五分位数的 35.0%比最高五分位数的 32.2%；P < 0.001）的个体终生风险较高。
我们估计的总体终生风险表明，加拿大安大略省每三个个体中就有一个在其一生中会被医生诊断患有哮喘。
