Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2010 Mar 22;277(1683):933-42. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2009.1755. Epub 2009 Nov 25.
In Europe, rotavirus gastroenteritis peaks in late winter or early spring suggesting a role for weather factors in transmission of the virus. In this study, multivariate regression models adapted for time-series data were used to investigate effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on reported rotavirus infections and the infection-rate parameter, a derived measure of infection transmission that takes into account population immunity, in England, Wales, Scotland and The Netherlands. Delayed effects of weather were investigated by introducing lagged weather terms into the model. Meta-regression was used to pool together country-specific estimates. There was a 13 per cent (95% confidence interval (CI), 11-15%) decrease in reported infections per 1 degrees C increase in temperature above a threshold of 5 degrees C and a 4 per cent (95% CI, 3-5%) decrease in the infection-rate parameter per 1 degrees C increase in temperature across the whole temperature range. The effect of temperature was immediate for the infection-rate parameter but delayed by up to four weeks for reported infections. There was no overall effect of humidity or rainfall. There is a direct and simple relationship between cold weather and rotavirus transmission in Great Britain and The Netherlands. The more complex and delayed temperature effect on disease incidence is likely to be mediated through the effects of weather on transmission.
在欧洲，轮状病毒肠胃炎在冬末或早春达到高峰，这表明天气因素在病毒传播中起作用。在这项研究中，使用适用于时间序列数据的多元回归模型，调查了温度、湿度和降雨量对英国、威尔士、苏格兰和荷兰报告的轮状病毒感染和感染率参数（感染传播的派生指标，考虑了人口免疫力）的影响。通过在模型中引入滞后天气条件，研究了天气的滞后效应。荟萃回归用于汇总各国的估计值。与 5 摄氏度的阈值相比，温度每升高 1 摄氏度，报告的感染病例就会减少 13%（95%置信区间 (CI)，11-15%），整个温度范围内，感染率参数每升高 1 摄氏度，就会减少 4%（95% CI，3-5%）。对于感染率参数，温度的影响是即时的，但对于报告的感染，这种影响会延迟最多四周。湿度或降雨量没有总体影响。在英国和荷兰，寒冷天气与轮状病毒传播之间存在直接而简单的关系。天气对传播的影响可能会通过对疾病发病率的更复杂和滞后的温度影响来介导。
