[2008年北京奥运会和残奥会空气质量保障措施对北京空气污染指数的影响及持续效应]

[The impact and durative effect of the measures of securing quality air for the Beijing Olympic and Paralympics Games 2008 on air pollution index in Beijing].

作者信息

Ma Ning, Liu Min

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100191, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2009 Jun;43(6):517-21.

DOI:

PMID:19950721

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the impact of the measures for securing quality air for the 2008 Beijing Olympic and Paralympics Games on air pollution index (API) in Beijing and forecast the aftereffects.

METHODS

The time-distribution of API in Beijing from 2004 to 2008 was described. The time sequence analysis was used and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was chosen to establish an API forecasting model to predict the API in December, 2008.

RESULTS

From 2004 to 2008, the average API in March (120 +/- 66) was the highest followed by November (116 +/- 72) and the average API in July (83 +/- 28) was the lowest followed by August (77 +/- 27). The proportion of "excellent" and "good" days from 2004 to 2008 were 9.56% (35/366), 54.37% (199/366), 8.49% (31/365), 54.52% (199/365), 7.12% (26/365 ), 58.90% (215/365 ), 8.77% (32/365), 58.63% (214/365), 16.67% (61/366), 58.20% (213/366) respectively, with an increasing trend year by year (chi2(trend) = 11.397, P = 0.001). The model of ARIMA (1, 0, 0) fitted well; according to the prediction of the ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model, the decrease of API that attributed to interim measures during the Olympic Games was 37. 1% and the average API of December was 82.

CONCLUSION

The interim measures during the Olympic Games were effective on promoting air quality. After the Olympic Games, air quality would still remain good.

摘要

目的

分析2008年北京奥运会和残奥会保障空气质量措施对北京空气污染指数（API）的影响并预测其后续效应。

方法

描述2004年至2008年北京API的时间分布情况。采用时间序列分析方法，选择自回归积分滑动平均模型（ARIMA）建立API预测模型，以预测2008年12月的API。

结果

2004年至2008年，3月份平均API最高（120±66），其次是11月份（116±72）；7月份平均API最低（83±28），其次是8月份（77±27）。2004年至2008年“优”和“良”天数的比例分别为9.56%（35/366）、54.37%（199/366）、8.49%（31/365）、54.52%（199/365）、7.12%（26/365）、58.90%（215/365）、8.77%（32/365）、58.63%（214/365）、16.67%（61/366）、58.20%（213/366），呈逐年上升趋势（趋势χ2=11.397，P=0.001）。ARIMA（1,0,0）模型拟合良好；根据ARIMA（1,0,0）模型预测，奥运会期间临时措施使API下降了37.1%，12月份平均API为82。