Deltour Isabelle, Johansen Christoffer, Auvinen Anssi, Feychting Maria, Klaeboe Lars, Schüz Joachim
Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society, Strandboulevarden 49, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2009 Dec 16;101(24):1721-4. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djp415.
In Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, the use of mobile phones increased sharply in the mid-1990s; thus, time trends in brain tumor incidence after 1998 may provide information about possible tumor risks associated with mobile phone use. We investigated time trends in the incidence of glioma and meningioma in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden from 1974 to 2003, using data from national cancer registries. We used joinpoint regression models to analyze the annual incidence rates of glioma and meningioma. During this period, 59,984 men and women aged 20-79 years were diagnosed with brain tumors in a population of 16 million adults. All statistical tests were two-sided. From 1974 to 2003, the incidence rate of glioma increased by 0.5% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2% to 0.8%) among men and by 0.2% per year (95% CI = -0.1% to 0.5%) among women and that of meningioma increased by 0.8% per year (95% CI = 0.4% to 1.3%) among men, and after the early 1990s, by 3.8% per year (95% CI = 3.2% to 4.4%) among women. No change in incidence trends were observed from 1998 to 2003, the time when possible associations between mobile phone use and cancer risk would be informative about an induction period of 5-10 years.
在丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典，20世纪90年代中期手机使用量急剧增加；因此，1998年后脑肿瘤发病率的时间趋势可能会提供与手机使用相关的潜在肿瘤风险信息。我们利用国家癌症登记处的数据，调查了1974年至2003年丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典神经胶质瘤和脑膜瘤的发病率时间趋势。我们使用连接点回归模型来分析神经胶质瘤和脑膜瘤的年发病率。在此期间，在1600万成年人中，有59984名年龄在20至79岁之间的男性和女性被诊断患有脑肿瘤。所有统计检验均为双侧检验。从1974年到2003年，男性神经胶质瘤发病率每年增加0.5%（95%置信区间[CI]=0.2%至0.8%），女性每年增加0.2%（95%CI=-0.1%至0.5%）；男性脑膜瘤发病率每年增加0.8%（95%CI=0.4%至1.3%），20世纪90年代初之后，女性每年增加3.8%（95%CI=3.2%至4.4%）。1998年至2003年未观察到发病率趋势变化，这一时期手机使用与癌症风险之间的可能关联对于5至10年的诱导期具有参考价值。
