Bone turnover markers and prediction of fracture: a prospective follow-up study of 1040 elderly women for a mean of 9 years.

Osteoporosis is characterized by compromised bone mass and strength, predisposing to an increased risk of fracture. Increased bone metabolism has been suggested to be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether baseline bone turnover markers are associated with long-term incidence of fracture in a population-based sample of 1040 women who were 75 years old (Malmö OPRA study). Seven bone markers (S-TRACP5b, S-CTX-I, S-OC[1-49], S-TotalOC, S-cOC, S-boneALP, and urinary osteocalcin) were measured at baseline and 1-year follow-up visit. During the mean follow-up of 9.0 years (range 7.4-10.9), 363 women sustained at least one fracture of any type, including 116 hip fractures and 103 clinical vertebral fractures. High S-TRACP5b and S-CTX-I levels were associated with increased risk of any fracture with hazard ratios [HRs (95% confidence interval)] of 1.16 (1.04-1.29) and 1.13 (1.01-1.27) per SD increase, respectively. They also were associated with increased risk of clinical vertebral fracture with HRs of 1.22 (1.01-1.48) and 1.32 (1.05-1.67), respectively. Markers were not associated with risk for hip fracture. Results were similar when we used resorption markers, including urinary osteocalcin, measured at the 1-year visit or an average of the two measurements. The HRs were highest for any fracture in the beginning of the follow-up period, 2.5 years from baseline. For vertebral fractures, the association was more pronounced and lasted for a longer period of time, at least for 5 years. In conclusion, elevated levels of S-TRACP5b, S-CTX-I, and urinary osteocalcin are associated with increased fracture risk for up to a decade in elderly women.