杜克急性心源性猝死风险评分对预测有血管造影 (>75%狭窄) 冠状动脉疾病患者心源性猝死的作用。
Usefulness of the Duke Sudden Cardiac Death risk score for predicting sudden cardiac death in patients with angiographic (>75% narrowing) coronary artery disease.
机构信息
Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA.
出版信息
Am J Cardiol. 2009 Dec 15;104(12):1624-30. doi: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2009.07.042.
The currently available sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk prediction tools fail to identify most at-risk patients and cannot delineate a specific patient's SCD risk. We sought to develop a tool to improve the risk stratification of patients with coronary artery disease. Clinical, demographic, and angiographic characteristics were evaluated among 37,258 patients who had undergone coronary angiography from January 1, 1985 to May 31, 2005, and who were found to have at least one native coronary artery stenosis of > or =75%. After a median follow-up of 6.2 years, SCD had occurred in 1,568 patients, 14,078 patients had died from other causes, and 21,612 patients remained alive. A Cox proportional hazards model identified 10 independent patient characteristic variables significantly associated with SCD. A simplified model accounting for 97% of the predictive capacity of the full model included the following 7 variables: depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, number of diseased coronary arteries, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, and tobacco use. The Duke SCD risk score was created from the simplified model to predict the likelihood of SCD among patients with coronary artery disease. It was internally validated with bootstrapping (c-index = 0.75, chi-square = 1,220.8) and externally validated in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy from the Sudden Cardiac Death Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT) database (c-index = 0.64, chi-square = 14.1). In conclusion, the Duke SCD risk score represents a simple, validated method for predicting the risk of SCD among patients with coronary artery disease and might be useful for directing treatment strategies designed to mitigate the risk of SCD.
目前可用的心脏性猝死 (SCD) 风险预测工具未能识别出大多数高危患者,也无法明确特定患者的 SCD 风险。我们旨在开发一种工具,以改善冠状动脉疾病患者的风险分层。
我们评估了 1985 年 1 月 1 日至 2005 年 5 月 31 日期间接受冠状动脉造影且至少有一条原发性冠状动脉狭窄 >75%的 37258 例患者的临床、人口统计学和血管造影特征。中位随访 6.2 年后,1568 例患者发生 SCD,14078 例患者死于其他原因,21612 例患者仍存活。Cox 比例风险模型确定了 10 个与 SCD 显著相关的独立患者特征变量。一个简化模型,包含 97%的全模型预测能力,纳入了以下 7 个变量:左心室射血分数降低、病变冠状动脉数量、糖尿病、高血压、心力衰竭、脑血管疾病和吸烟。该简化模型创建了 Duke SCD 风险评分,以预测冠状动脉疾病患者发生 SCD 的可能性。该评分通过自举法进行内部验证(c 指数=0.75,卡方=1220.8),并在缺血性心肌病患者中通过Sudden Cardiac Death Heart Failure Trial(SCD-HeFT)数据库进行外部验证(c 指数=0.64,卡方=14.1)。
总之,Duke SCD 风险评分是一种简单、经过验证的方法,可预测冠状动脉疾病患者发生 SCD 的风险,可能有助于指导旨在降低 SCD 风险的治疗策略。