Mann Michael E, Zhang Zhihua, Rutherford Scott, Bradley Raymond S, Hughes Malcolm K, Shindell Drew, Ammann Caspar, Faluvegi Greg, Ni Fenbiao
Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Science. 2009 Nov 27;326(5957):1256-60. doi: 10.1126/science.1177303.
Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial patterns have remained poorly defined. We used a global climate proxy network to reconstruct surface temperature patterns over this interval. The Medieval period is found to display warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally. This period is marked by a tendency for La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 C.E., with greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents. The patterns of temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes involving El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation.
众所周知,全球气温在过去1500年中有所变化,但空间格局仍不明确。我们使用全球气候代理网络重建了这一时期的地表温度格局。研究发现,中世纪时期在某些地区的温暖程度与过去十年相当或超过过去十年,但全球范围内远低于近期水平。这一时期的特点是热带太平洋地区有类似拉尼娜的状况。小冰期最冷的温度出现在公元1400年至1700年之间,在北半球温带大陆降温最为明显。温度变化模式意味着气候对涉及厄尔尼诺和北大西洋涛动 - 北极涛动的自然辐射强迫变化的动态响应。