Department of Systems Engineering, United States Military Academy at West Point, NY, USA.
Risk Anal. 2010 Jan;30(1):32-48. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01319.x. Epub 2009 Dec 11.
The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data.
9·11 事件以及对恐怖分子或敌对国家可能使用大规模杀伤性武器袭击的担忧，导致人们更加重视国土安全的风险分析。已经成功地使用概率风险分析（PRA）对不确定危害（自然和工程）进行了分析。与不确定危害不同，恐怖分子和敌对国家是聪明的对手，他们可以观察到我们的弱点，并动态地调整他们的计划和行动，以实现他们的目标。本文将不确定危害风险分析与智能对手风险分析进行了比较，描述了智能对手风险分析的挑战，并提出了一个概率防御者-攻击者-防御者模型，以评估基线风险和防御者投资提供的潜在风险降低。该模型包括攻击前的防御者决策；攻击期间的攻击者决策；攻击后的防御者行动；以及攻击实施、检测和后果的不确定性。使用概念性数据的生物恐怖主义问题说明了风险管理模型。
