Keeney Ralph L
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0120, USA.
Risk Anal. 2007 Jun;27(3):585-96. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00910.x.
Decisions are made to achieve objectives. A qualitative list of the objectives for a decision is the foundation for a value model that unambiguously represents objectives in a quantitative manner. The objectives guide thinking and the value model provides a basis for analyzing alternatives to best meet the desired objectives. This article illustrates the usefulness of clearly identifying objectives and developing value models to support anti-terrorism analysis. It outlines procedures to develop value models for the Department of Homeland Security and for terrorist organizations. The later is useful to both design anti-terrorism alternatives and suggest possible terrorist priorities and actions. An example that develops a terrorist value model for the theft and misuse of plutonium is presented. Several uses of value models for anti-terrorist activities are discussed and suggestions for developing such value models are outlined.
决策是为了实现目标而做出的。决策目标的定性列表是价值模型的基础，该模型以定量方式明确表示目标。目标指导思考，价值模型为分析备选方案以最佳满足期望目标提供了基础。本文说明了明确识别目标和开发价值模型以支持反恐分析的有用性。它概述了为国土安全部和恐怖组织开发价值模型的程序。后者对于设计反恐备选方案以及提出可能的恐怖主义优先事项和行动都很有用。给出了一个为钚的盗窃和滥用开发恐怖主义价值模型的示例。讨论了价值模型在反恐活动中的几种用途，并概述了开发此类价值模型的建议。
