Campbell M J, Rodrigues L, Macfarlane A J, Murphy M F
University of Southampton, England.
Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol. 1991 Jan;5(1):93-100. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3016.1991.tb00688.x.
Using the daily number of deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome in England and Wales from 1979 to 1985, and the daily temperature recorded at the London Weather Centre, two models were constructed, one including a temperature term and one without it, and the models used to predict the mortality in 1986. It was found that the model using temperature had a slightly better predictive power and successfully accounted for the increased mortality in February 1986. Thus, we conclude that the excess mortality of February 1986 was associated with the unusually cold weather during that month.
利用1979年至1985年英格兰和威尔士因婴儿猝死综合征导致的每日死亡人数，以及伦敦气象中心记录的每日气温，构建了两个模型，一个包含温度项，另一个不包含温度项，并使用这些模型预测1986年的死亡率。结果发现，使用温度的模型具有稍好的预测能力，并成功解释了1986年2月死亡率的上升。因此，我们得出结论，1986年2月的超额死亡率与该月异常寒冷的天气有关。
