Murphy M F, Campbell M J
Medical Statistics Division, OPCS, London.
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1987 Mar;41(1):63-71. doi: 10.1136/jech.41.1.63.
We examined the relation between the daily numbers of deaths ascribed to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (n = 6226) and daily temperature in England and Wales over the five year period 1979-83. When the data were filtered to remove the dominant seasonal trend, and residual autocorrelation, we found a significant negative correlation of deaths with both the level and rate of change of temperature four to six days earlier, irrespective of age at death. Place of usual residence was obtained for 909 SIDS cases occurring during the unusually severe winter of 1981-82, and, using space-time clustering techniques, we confirmed previous findings of the lack of 'epidemicity' for this condition. These results are compatible with several previous hypotheses of the relation between the weather and SIDS and directly incriminate drops in temperature in the occurrence of the condition.
我们研究了1979 - 1983年这五年间，英格兰和威尔士归因于婴儿猝死综合征（SIDS）的每日死亡人数（n = 6226）与每日气温之间的关系。当对数据进行过滤以消除主要的季节性趋势和残余自相关时，我们发现，无论死亡时的年龄如何，死亡人数与四至六天前的气温水平及气温变化率均呈显著负相关。我们获取了1981 - 1982年异常严寒冬季期间发生的909例婴儿猝死综合征病例的常住地信息，并使用时空聚类技术，证实了此前关于该病症不存在“流行性”的研究结果。这些结果与先前关于天气和婴儿猝死综合征之间关系的若干假设相符，并直接表明气温下降与该病症的发生有关。
