Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.
Prev Vet Med. 2010 Mar 1;93(4):286-93. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.11.006. Epub 2009 Dec 8.
A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period.
我们开发了一个动态、确定性、经济模拟模型，用于估计控制牛分枝杆菌亚种副结核病（约翰氏病）在奶牛场中的成本和收益。该模型旨在作为兽医与农民一起使用的示范工具。模型设计过程涉及用户咨询和参与，该模型可在专用网站上免费获取。该“用户友好”的模型界面允许输入关键假设和特定于农场的参数，从而可以根据个别农场的情况调整模型模拟。该模型模拟了约翰氏病及其各种控制措施对畜群流行率和畜群内动物的排泄状态的影响、疾病的财务成本及其任何控制措施，以及控制牛分枝杆菌病对奶牛场的可能收益在 10 年内。因此，该模型有助于更清楚地了解畜群中约翰氏病的“隐性成本”以及控制该病可能带来的收益。模型中考虑的控制策略是“不控制”、“对确诊动物进行检测和淘汰”、“改善管理措施”或“检测和淘汰与改善管理措施相结合”的双重策略。模型的一个示例运行表明，“改善管理措施”的策略可以减少早期感染途径，从而显著降低畜群流行率和总成本。检测和淘汰在 10 年内对降低流行率和总成本几乎没有作用。
