Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services, P.O. Box 7004, St. Olavs plass, N-0130 Oslo, Norway.
Health Res Policy Syst. 2009 Dec 16;7 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S17. doi: 10.1186/1478-4505-7-S1-S17.
This article is part of a series written for people responsible for making decisions about health policies and programmes and for those who support these decision makers. In this article, we address the issue of decision making in situations in which there is insufficient evidence at hand. Policymakers often have insufficient evidence to know with certainty what the impacts of a health policy or programme option will be, but they must still make decisions. We suggest four questions that can be considered when there may be insufficient evidence to be confident about the impacts of implementing an option. These are: 1. Is there a systematic review of the impacts of the option? 2. Has inconclusive evidence been misinterpreted as evidence of no effect? 3. Is it possible to be confident about a decision despite a lack of evidence? 4. Is the option potentially harmful, ineffective or not worth the cost?
这是一系列专为负责制定卫生政策和规划的人员以及为这些决策者提供支持的人员撰写的文章中的一部分。在本文中,我们将讨论在手头证据不足的情况下做出决策的问题。政策制定者通常没有足够的证据来确定卫生政策或规划方案选择的影响,但他们仍必须做出决策。当实施某一方案的影响可能缺乏足够的证据时,我们建议考虑以下四个问题:1. 是否对该方案的影响进行了系统评价?2. 不确定的证据是否被误解为没有效果的证据?3. 是否有可能在缺乏证据的情况下做出有信心的决策?4. 该方案是否有潜在的危害、无效或不值得成本?