School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
Int J Biometeorol. 2010 Jul;54(4):393-400. doi: 10.1007/s00484-009-0290-8. Epub 2010 Jan 5.
The paper examines whether there was an excess of deaths and the relative role of temperature and ozone in a heatwave during 7-26 February 2004 in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city accustomed to warm weather. The data on daily counts of deaths from cardiovascular disease and non-external causes, meteorological conditions, and air pollution in Brisbane from 1 January 2001 to 31 October 2004 were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. The relationship between temperature and mortality was analysed using a Poisson time series regression model with smoothing splines to control for nonlinear effects of confounding factors. The highest temperature recorded in the 2004 heatwave was 42 degrees C compared with the highest recorded temperature of 34 degrees C during the same periods of 2001-2003. There was a significant relationship between exposure to heat and excess deaths in the 2004 heatwave [estimated increase in non-external deaths: 75 ([95% confidence interval, CI: 11-138; cardiovascular deaths: 41 (95% CI: -2 to 84)]. There was no apparent evidence of substantial short-term mortality displacement. The excess deaths were mainly attributed to temperature but exposure to ozone also contributed to these deaths.
本文研究了澳大利亚布里斯班在 2004 年 2 月 7 日至 26 日期间是否存在过热致死人数过多的情况，以及温度和臭氧在其中的相对作用。布里斯班是一个亚热带城市，习惯了温暖的天气。澳大利亚统计局、澳大利亚气象局和昆士兰州环境保护局分别提供了 2001 年 1 月 1 日至 2004 年 10 月 31 日期间布里斯班每日心血管疾病和非外部原因死亡人数、气象条件和空气污染数据。使用泊松时间序列回归模型和平滑样条来控制混杂因素的非线性效应，分析了温度与死亡率之间的关系。2004 年热浪期间记录的最高温度为 42 摄氏度，而 2001-2003 年同期记录的最高温度为 34 摄氏度。暴露在高温下与 2004 年热浪期间的超额死亡之间存在显著关系[非外部死亡估计增加：75（95%置信区间：11-138；心血管死亡：41（95%置信区间：-2 至 84）]。没有明显证据表明短期死亡率有大量转移。超额死亡主要归因于温度，但臭氧暴露也导致了这些死亡。
