Bioklimatologia, Laboratory of Bioclimatology and Environmental Ergonomics, Łukowska 17/55, 04-133, Warsaw, Poland.
Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00-818, Warsaw, Poland.
Int J Biometeorol. 2018 Mar;62(3):307-318. doi: 10.1007/s00484-017-1423-0. Epub 2017 Sep 1.
Heat stress is one of the environmental factors influencing the health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large body of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during heat waves all over the world. This paper presents key results of research dealing with heat-related mortality (HRM) in various cities in Poland which cover about 25% of the country's population. Daily mortality and weather data reports for the years 1991-2000 were used. The intensity of heat stress was assessed by the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The research considers also the projections of future bioclimate to the end of twenty-first century. Brain storming discussions were applied to find necessary adaptation strategies of healthcare system (HCS) in Poland, to minimise negative effects of heat stress. In general, in days with strong and very strong heat stress, ones must expect increase in mortality (in relation to no thermal stress days) of 12 and 47%, respectively. Because of projected rise in global temperature and heat stress frequency, we must expect significant increase in HRM to the end of twenty-first century of even 165% in comparison to present days. The results of research show necessity of urgent implementation of adaptation strategies to heat in HCS.
热应激是影响个体和更广泛人群健康的环境因素之一。有大量研究记录了世界各地热浪期间死亡率和发病率的显著增加。本文介绍了在波兰各个城市进行的与与热相关的死亡率（HRM）相关的研究的主要结果，这些城市约占波兰人口的 25%。使用了 1991-2000 年的每日死亡率和天气数据报告。热应激强度通过通用热气候指数（UTCI）进行评估。该研究还考虑了到二十一世纪末的未来生物气候预测。通过头脑风暴讨论，找到了波兰医疗保健系统（HCS）适应热应激的必要策略，以最小化热应激的负面影响。一般来说，在强热和极强热应激的日子里，预计死亡率（与无热应激日相比）分别增加 12%和 47%。由于全球气温上升和热应激频率增加，预计到二十一世纪末，HRM 与当前相比将显著增加，甚至增加 165%。研究结果表明，HCS 必须紧急实施适应热应激的策略。
