Department of Disease Control and Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, SE-751 89 Uppsala, Sweden.
Prev Vet Med. 2010 Apr 1;94(1-2):108-18. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.11.017. Epub 2010 Jan 6.
Sweden has been considered free from bovine tuberculosis (BTB) since 1958. In 1987 an infected consignment of farmed deer was imported to Sweden and in 1991 the first infected deer was identified. Despite a thorough trace back investigation, all deer originating from the infected consignment could not be traced. Therefore a national control programme for BTB in farmed deer was implemented. At present the control programme is in its final stage and all deer holdings that have not obtained BTB-free status are put under restrictions. This study aimed to determine the probability that the Swedish farmed deer population is free from BTB using methods that allow analysis of non-structured data, i.e. results from meat inspection, necropsies and tuberculin testing. Surveillance data from 1994 to October 2006 from farmed deer affiliated to the voluntary control programme were analysed using the model described in Martin et al. (2007a). The model was adjusted to allow the within-herd design prevalence to be defined as one infected deer per herd and the between-herd design prevalence to be defined as one infected deer herd in the country. Depending on the chosen within-herd design prevalence: 1, 2, 3 or 4 infected deer per herd or 5% infected deer per herd, the probability of freedom from BTB infection in the Swedish farmed deer population varied between 87% and 97%. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded, with high confidence, that the Swedish farmed deer population is free from M. bovis.
自 1958 年以来，瑞典一直被认为没有牛结核病（BTB）。1987 年，一批受感染的养殖鹿进口到瑞典，1991 年首次发现受感染的鹿。尽管进行了彻底的追溯调查，但所有源自受感染批次的鹿都无法追踪。因此，实施了一项针对养殖鹿的 BTB 国家控制计划。目前，该控制计划已进入最后阶段，所有未获得 BTB 无病状态的鹿养殖场都受到限制。本研究旨在使用允许分析非结构化数据的方法，即肉检、剖检和结核菌素检测的结果，确定瑞典养殖鹿群是否无 BTB。使用 Martin 等人（2007a）描述的模型分析了 1994 年至 2006 年 10 月期间隶属于自愿控制计划的养殖鹿的监测数据。该模型进行了调整，以便将 herd 内设计患病率定义为每 herd 有一头受感染的鹿，而 herd 间设计患病率定义为该国每 herd 有一头受感染的鹿。根据所选 herd 内设计患病率：每 herd 有 1、2、3 或 4 头受感染的鹿，或每 herd 有 5%的鹿感染，瑞典养殖鹿群无 BTB 感染的概率在 87%到 97%之间变化。根据获得的结果，可以得出结论，瑞典养殖鹿群无 M. bovis 的可能性非常高。
