Institute of Health and Society, Human Nutrition Research Centre, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Obes Facts. 2009;2(3):150-6. doi: 10.1159/000218092. Epub 2009 May 28.
To test the hypothesis that adolescent body mass index (BMI) tracks into adulthood and can be used as a predictor of obesity and/or central adiposity in adulthood.
A prospective cohort study following up 111 female and 84 male subjects who participated in dietary and anthropometric surveys when aged 12 years (in 1979-1981) and 33 years (in 2000-2001). At both time points, height and weight were measured and BMI calculated. At 33 years, waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference were also measured and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) calculated.
In the male and female participants, BMI at 12 years was associated significantly with BMI at 33 years (R = 0.58 and 0.53, respectively, both p < 0.01) and WC at 33 years (R = 0.58 and 0.53, both p < 0.01). The probability of being an obese adult increased with rising adolescent BMI: normal weight male (BMI < 20.89 kg/m(2)) and female subjects (BMI < 21.20 kg/m(2)) at 12 years had a 20% and a 7% chance of being obese at 33 years, respectively; the probabilities for obese male (BMI > or =25.58 kg/m(2)) and female subjects (BMI > or =26.05 kg/m(2)) were 83 and 64%. The corresponding probability of becoming centrally obese (measured by WC) increased from 17 and 16% in male and female subjects of a normal weight to 58 and 59% in those being obese.
Adolescent BMI is a good predictor of adult BMI and WC and the likelihood of becoming obese and/or centrally obese in adulthood.
验证青少年体重指数（BMI）会延续至成年期，并可作为成年期肥胖和/或中心性肥胖预测因子的假说。
对 111 名女性和 84 名男性进行前瞻性队列研究，这些人在 12 岁（1979-1981 年）和 33 岁（2000-2001 年）时参加了饮食和人体测量调查。在这两个时间点，测量了身高和体重，并计算了 BMI。在 33 岁时，还测量了腰围（WC）和臀围，并计算了腰臀比（WHR）。
在男性和女性参与者中，12 岁时的 BMI 与 33 岁时的 BMI 显著相关（R 分别为 0.58 和 0.53，均 p < 0.01），与 33 岁时的 WC 也显著相关（R 分别为 0.58 和 0.53，均 p < 0.01）。青少年 BMI 升高，成年后患肥胖的可能性增加：12 岁时正常体重的男性（BMI < 20.89 kg/m²）和女性（BMI < 21.20 kg/m²），在 33 岁时肥胖的概率分别为 20%和 7%；肥胖男性（BMI >或=25.58 kg/m²）和女性（BMI >或=26.05 kg/m²）的概率分别为 83%和 64%。体重正常的男性和女性中心性肥胖（以 WC 测量）的概率从 17%和 16%分别增加到肥胖者的 58%和 59%。
青少年 BMI 是成年 BMI 和 WC 的良好预测因子，也是成年期肥胖和/或中心性肥胖发生的可能性的良好预测因子。
