School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Environ Health Perspect. 2010 Mar;118(3):382-6. doi: 10.1289/ehp.0900868. Epub 2009 Oct 22.
Inhaled asbestos fibers may contribute to three-fourths of malignant mesotheliomas diagnosed in men and almost 40% of cases diagnosed in women. Bans on the manufacture and sale of amphibole asbestos fibers are expected to reduce the incidence of mesothelioma, but the long latency period from initial exposure to clinical disease means that people exposed before bans were enacted will continue to develop asbestos-related mesotheliomas as they age. Tse et al. (p. 382) used historical data on asbestos consumption and mesothelioma diagnoses to predict future mesothelioma trends in Hong Kong. Asbestos use peaked during a construction boom in the early 1960s and subsequently declined by > 90% following a ban on the sale and import of crocidolite and amosite asbestos in 1996, whereas mesothelioma diagnoses in men increased from a single case in 1972–1976 to 63 cases in 2002–2006 (corresponding to crude incidence rates of 0.09 and 3.86 cases/million men, respectively). Assuming an average latency of 42 years, the authors predict that incidence rates will peak in 2009 and that diagnoses will peak in 2014. However, they caution that ongoing use of chrysotile asbestos and the release of asbestos fibers from older buildings during demolition or renovation may slow the projected decline. [corrected]
吸入的石棉纤维可能导致四分之三的男性恶性间皮瘤和近 40%的女性间皮瘤。预计对石棉纤维的制造和销售的禁令将降低间皮瘤的发病率，但从最初暴露到临床疾病的潜伏期较长，意味着在禁令颁布之前暴露的人将随着年龄的增长继续发展与石棉相关的间皮瘤。Tse 等人（第 382 页）使用关于石棉消耗和间皮瘤诊断的历史数据来预测香港未来的间皮瘤趋势。石棉的使用在 20 世纪 60 年代初的建筑热潮中达到顶峰，随后在 1996 年禁止销售和进口青石棉和铁石棉后下降了>90%，而男性间皮瘤的诊断从 1972-1976 年的单个病例增加到 2002-2006 年的 63 例（粗发病率分别为 0.09 和 3.86 例/百万男性）。假设平均潜伏期为 42 年，作者预测发病率将在 2009 年达到峰值，诊断将在 2014 年达到峰值。然而，他们警告说，温石棉的持续使用以及在拆除或翻新过程中旧建筑物释放的石棉纤维可能会减缓预期的下降速度。[已更正]
