Department of Economics, Rutgers University 75 Hamilton Street, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA.
Demography. 2009 Nov;46(4):739-63. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0076.
The major government commissions on immigration and crime in the early twentieth century relied on evidence that suffered from aggregation bias and the absence of accurate population data, which led them to present partial and sometimes misleading views of the immigrant-native criminality comparison. With improved data and methods, we find that in 1904, prison commitment rates for more serious crimes were quite similar by nativity for all ages except ages 18 and 19, for which the commitment rate for immigrants was higher than for the native-born. By 1930, immigrants were less likely than natives to be committed to prisons at all ages 20 and older, but this advantage disappears when one looks at commitments for violent offenses. The time series pattern reflects a growing gap between natives and immigrants at older ages, one that was driven by sharp increases in the commitment rates of the native-born, while commitment rates for the foreign-born were remarkably stable.
20 世纪初，主要的移民和犯罪问题政府委员会依靠的证据存在聚合偏差，并且缺乏准确的人口数据，这导致他们对移民与本地居民犯罪率的比较提出了片面的、有时是误导性的观点。随着数据和方法的改进，我们发现，1904 年，除了 18 岁和 19 岁的年龄组外，所有年龄段的严重犯罪入狱率在出生地方面非常相似，而移民的入狱率高于本地出生者。到 1930 年，所有 20 岁及以上年龄组的移民入狱的可能性都低于本地人，但当人们观察暴力犯罪的入狱情况时，这种优势就消失了。时间序列模式反映了年龄较大的本地人和移民之间差距的不断扩大，这种差距是由本地出生者的入狱率急剧上升所驱动的，而外国出生者的入狱率则非常稳定。
