平流层水汽对全球变暖速率的年代际变化的贡献。
Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming.
机构信息
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA.
出版信息
Science. 2010 Mar 5;327(5970):1219-23. doi: 10.1126/science.1182488. Epub 2010 Jan 28.
Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000-2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% as compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.
平流层水汽浓度在 2000 年后减少了约 10%。在这里，我们表明，与仅由二氧化碳和其他温室气体引起的情况相比，这一变化导致 2000-2009 年全球地表温度的增长率减缓了约 25%。更有限的数据表明，平流层水汽可能在 1980 年至 2000 年间增加，这将使 20 世纪 90 年代的地表变暖的十年速率增加约 30%，而忽略这一变化的估计值则会使这一速率增加约 30%。这些发现表明，平流层水汽是影响全球地表气候变化的重要驱动因素。
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