Rabczenko Daniel, Wojtyniak Bogdan, Kuchcik Magdalena, Seroka Wojciech
Narodowy Instytut Zdrowia Publicznego-Państwowy Zakład Higieny, Zakład-Centrum Monitorowania i Analiz Stanu Zdrowia Ludności.
Przegl Epidemiol. 2009;63(4):565-70.
The paper presents results of analysis of short-term effect of changes in maximal daily temperature on daily mortality from cardiovascular diseases in warm season in years 1999-2006. Analysis was carried out in six large Polish cities--Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warszawa and Wrocław. Generalized additive models were used in the analysis. Potential confounding factors--long term changes of mortality, day of week and other meteorological factors (atmospheric pressure, humidity, mean wind speed) were taken into account during model building process. Analysis was done for two age groups--0-69 and 70 years and older. Significant, positive association between daily maximal temperature and risk of death from cardiovascular diseases was found only in older age group.
本文呈现了1999 - 2006年暖季每日最高气温变化对心血管疾病日死亡率短期影响的分析结果。分析在波兰六个大城市——卡托维兹、克拉科夫、罗兹、波兹南、华沙和弗罗茨瓦夫进行。分析中使用了广义相加模型。在模型构建过程中考虑了潜在的混杂因素——死亡率的长期变化、星期几以及其他气象因素（大气压力、湿度、平均风速）。针对两个年龄组——0 - 69岁和70岁及以上进行了分析。仅在老年组中发现每日最高气温与心血管疾病死亡风险之间存在显著的正相关。
