PRBO Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11, Petaluma, CA 94954, USA.
Conserv Biol. 2010 Feb;24(1):51-62. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01409.x.
To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.
为了预测全球气候变化所带来的瞬息万变的世界，必须将气候模型的预测纳入保护工作中。这就要求保护工作的规模与气候变化预测的规模相匹配。我们考虑了保护工作如何将空间尺度纳入保护生物多样性，气候变化模型的预测如何随尺度而变化，以及两者如何或不如何匹配。保护规划者利用多尺度的过去和当前生态条件信息来确定保护目标和威胁，并指导保护行动。气候变化的预测也是在多个尺度上进行的，从全球和区域环流模型到下推到局部尺度的预测。这些下推的预测带有与其来源的大范围模型相关的不确定性；因此，它们的高分辨率可能比实际情况更明显。在区域或全球范围内进行保护是为了确定优先事项和影响政策。在这些规模上，全球和区域气候模型的粗糙性和不确定性可能不如它们所揭示的未来情况那么重要。在生态区域尺度上，与下推气候模型相关的不确定性变得更加关键，因为保护目标的分布是计划的基础，它们可能会在未来的气候条件下发生变化。在局部尺度上，地形和土地覆盖的变化会影响局部气候，通常会覆盖大范围气候模型的预测，并增加不确定性。尽管存在不确定性，生态学家和保护主义者必须与气候变化模型构建者合作，专注于最有可能的预测。未来将不同于过去，充满惊喜；明智地在适当的尺度上使用模型预测可能有助于我们做好准备。
