应用潜在类别分析评估丹麦屠宰猪常规肉品检验的灵敏度和特异性。

Evaluation of sensitivity and specificity of routine meat inspection of Danish slaughter pigs using Latent Class Analysis.

机构信息

Department of Animal Health and Bioscience, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Aarhus, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark.

出版信息

Prev Vet Med. 2010 May 1;94(3-4):165-9. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.01.009. Epub 2010 Feb 4.

DOI:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.01.009

PMID:20132995

Abstract

Two groups of observers, regular meat inspectors and two veterinary researchers, respectively, conducted independent veterinary meat inspection of organs of slaughter pigs from organic or conventional production systems slaughtered at one abattoir in April 2005. A total of 3054 pigs (899 organic and 2155 conventional) were examined. The observed pathological disorders were grouped in four categories; respiratory disorders (RESP), parasitic disorders (PAR), intestinal disorders (INT) and heart disorders (HEART). Using a latent class model, the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of meat inspectors and researchers were estimated without the assumption of an available gold standard. The Se for the regular meat inspection was found to be 0.92, 0.16, 0.24 and 0.49 for RESP, PAR, INT and HEART, respectively. The Se for the researchers was found to be 0.81, 0.96, 0.91 and 0.68 for RESP, PAR, INT and HEART, respectively. The Sp for the regular meat inspection was found to be between 0.98 and 1.00 for the four categories. The Sp for the researchers was found to be 0.83, 0.94, 0.76 and 0.99 for RESP, PAR, INT and HEART, respectively. The low Se of ordinary meat inspection for parasitic, intestinal and heart disorders will cause a significant underestimation of the prevalence of diseases reported to the pig producers. Based on our results the true prevalence of diseases (conventional vs. organic slaughter pigs) was (in %): 42 vs. 16, 5 vs. 51, 5 vs. 12 and 9 vs. 5 for RESP, PAR, INT and HEART, respectively.

摘要

两组观察者，分别是常规肉品检验员和两名兽医研究人员，在 2005 年 4 月于一家屠宰场对来自有机或常规生产体系的屠宰猪的器官进行了独立的兽医肉品检验。共有 3054 头猪（899 头有机猪和 2155 头常规猪）接受了检查。观察到的病理病变分为四类：呼吸道疾病（RESP）、寄生虫病（PAR）、肠道疾病（INT）和心脏病（HEART）。使用潜在类别模型，在没有假定存在可用金标准的情况下，估计了肉品检验员和研究人员的敏感性（Se）和特异性（Sp）。常规肉品检验的 Se 分别为 RESP、PAR、INT 和 HEART 的 0.92、0.16、0.24 和 0.49。研究人员的 Se 分别为 RESP、PAR、INT 和 HEART 的 0.81、0.96、0.91 和 0.68。常规肉品检验的 Sp 分别为 0.98 和 1.00 四个类别。研究人员的 Sp 分别为 RESP、PAR、INT 和 HEART 的 0.83、0.94、0.76 和 0.99。普通肉品检验对寄生虫病、肠道病和心脏病的低 Se 将导致对向养猪户报告的疾病流行率的显著低估。根据我们的结果，疾病的真实流行率（常规屠宰猪与有机屠宰猪）分别为：42%比 16%，5%比 51%，5%比 12%和 9%比 5%，用于 RESP、PAR、INT 和 HEART。