欧洲 2009 年大流行监测和研究的经验与教训。

Experience and lessons from surveillance and studies of the 2009 pandemic in Europe.

机构信息

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden. author.E-mail address:

出版信息

Public Health. 2010 Jan;124(1):14-23. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2009.12.001.

Abstract

Surveillance and studies in a pandemic is a complex topic including four distinct components: (1) early detection and investigation; (2) comprehensive early assessment; (3) monitoring; and (4) rapid investigation of the effectiveness and impact of countermeasures, including monitoring the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures. In the 2009 pandemic, the prime early detection and investigation took place in the Americas, but Europe needed to undertake the other three components while remaining vigilant to new phenomenon such as the emergence of antiviral resistance and important viral mutation. Laboratory-based surveillance was essential and also integral to epidemiological and clinical surveillance. Early assessment was especially vital because of the many important strategic parameters of the pandemic that could not be anticipated (the 'known unknowns'). Such assessment did not need to be undertaken in every country, and was done by the earliest affected European countries, particularly those with stronger surveillance. This was more successful than requiring countries to forward primary data for central analysis. However, it sometimes proved difficult to get even those analyses from European counties, and information from Southern hemisphere countries and North America proved equally valuable. These analyses informed which public health and clinical measures were most likely to be successful, and were summarized in a European risk assessment that was updated repeatedly. The estimate of the severity of the pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), and more detailed description by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control in the risk assessment along with revised planning assumptions were essential, as most national European plans envisaged triggering more disruptive interventions in the event of a severe pandemic. Setting up new surveillance systems in the midst of the pandemic and getting information from them was generally less successful. All European countries needed to perform monitoring (Component 3) for the proper management of their own healthcare systems and other services. The information that central authorities might like to have for monitoring was legion, and some countries found it difficult to limit this to what was essential for decisions and key communications. Monitoring should have been tested for feasibility in influenza seasons, but also needed to consider what surveillance systems will change or cease to deliver during a pandemic. International monitoring (reporting upwards to WHO and European authorities) had to be kept simple as many countries found it difficult to provide routine information to international bodies as well as undertaking internal processes. Investigation of the effectiveness of countermeasures (and the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures) (Component 4) is another process that only needs to be undertaken in some countries. Safety monitoring proved especially important because of concerns over the safety of vaccines and antivirals. It is unlikely that it will become clear whether and which public health measures have been successful during the pandemic itself. Piloting of methods of estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (part of Component 4) in Europe was underway in 2008. It was concluded that for future pandemics, authorities should plan how they will undertake Components 2-4, resourcing them realistically and devising new ways of sharing analyses.

摘要

监测和研究大流行是一个复杂的课题,包括四个不同的组成部分:(1)早期发现和调查;(2)全面的早期评估;(3)监测;以及(4)迅速调查对策的有效性和影响,包括监测药物对策的安全性。在 2009 年的大流行中,早期的主要发现和调查发生在美洲,但欧洲需要开展其他三个组成部分,同时警惕新现象的出现,如抗病毒药物耐药性和重要病毒突变的出现。基于实验室的监测至关重要,也是流行病学和临床监测的组成部分。早期评估尤为重要,因为大流行有许多重要的战略参数无法预测(“已知的未知”)。这种评估不需要在每个国家进行,而是由最早受影响的欧洲国家进行,特别是那些监测能力较强的国家。这比要求各国提交中央分析的原始数据更为成功。然而,有时甚至难以从欧洲国家获得这些分析结果,来自南半球国家和北美的信息同样有价值。这些分析为最有可能成功的公共卫生和临床措施提供了信息,并在欧洲风险评估中进行了总结,该评估被反复更新。世界卫生组织(WHO)对大流行严重程度的估计,以及欧洲疾病预防控制中心在风险评估中更详细的描述,以及修订后的规划假设,都至关重要,因为大多数欧洲国家的计划设想,如果大流行严重,将触发更具破坏性的干预措施。在大流行期间建立新的监测系统并从中获取信息的工作总体上不太成功。所有欧洲国家都需要对本国医疗保健系统和其他服务进行监测(第 3 部分)。中央当局可能希望用于监测的信息不计其数,一些国家发现很难将其限制在决策和关键通信所必需的信息范围内。监测应该在流感季节进行可行性测试,但还需要考虑在大流行期间哪些监测系统将发生变化或停止提供信息。国际监测(向世卫组织和欧洲当局报告)必须保持简单,因为许多国家发现向国际机构提供常规信息以及开展内部流程都很困难。对策(包括药物对策的安全性)效果的调查(第 4 部分)是仅需要在某些国家开展的另一个过程。安全性监测尤为重要,因为人们对疫苗和抗病毒药物的安全性感到担忧。在大流行期间,不太可能清楚地知道哪些公共卫生措施是有效的。2008 年,在欧洲正在进行评估流感疫苗有效性方法的试点(第 4 部分的一部分)。结论是,为了未来的大流行,当局应该计划如何开展第 2-4 部分,为它们提供真实的资源,并设计新的分析共享方法。

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