Allan F. Williams LLC, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2010 Feb;11(1):1-7. doi: 10.1080/15389580903370047.
The objective of this study was to evaluate New Jersey's unique combination of a higher licensing age and a strong GDL system applicable to all novice drivers.
Population-based crash rates for drivers of ages potentially affected by GDL were compared, pre- and post-GDL implementation, with those of adults ages 25-59, using data on fatal crashes and on all police-reported crashes.
After GDL implementation, there were statistically significant reductions in the crash rates of 17-year-olds, based on all reported crashes (16%), injury crashes (14%), and fatal crashes (25%), relative to those of drivers ages 25-59. The crash rates of 18-year-olds decreased significantly on the basis of all reported crashes (10%) and injury crashes (10%), relative to those of drivers ages 25-59. The fatal crash involvement rate of 18-year-olds decreased by 4 percent, which was not statistically significant. There was also a statistically significant reduction in fatal crashes of 16-year-old drivers; however, this is unlikely to have been attributable to GDL. Significant reductions in nighttime crashes (of all severity levels) of drivers ages 17 and 18 were observed, as were significant yet smaller reductions in their daytime crash rates. Reductions in fatal crashes of 17- and 18-year-olds carrying more than one passenger were sizable (23 and 24%, respectively) but were not statistically significant.
New Jersey's licensing age of 17 eliminates most crashes at age 16. To the extent that the relative inexperience of 17-year-old drivers may negatively impact their crash rates, this effect appears to be largely blunted by New Jersey's strong GDL system. New Jersey's GDL system also reduces crashes at age 18, an age group untouched by other states' GDL systems. New Jersey's combination of licensing policies for young drivers is a model for the nation.
本研究旨在评估新泽西州独特的组合，即较高的许可年龄和适用于所有新手驾驶员的强大 GDL 系统。
使用致命碰撞和所有警方报告的碰撞数据，比较了潜在受 GDL 影响的驾驶员年龄的人群基础碰撞率，在 GDL 实施前后与 25-59 岁成年人的碰撞率进行比较。
在 GDL 实施后，根据所有报告的碰撞（16%）、受伤碰撞（14%）和致命碰撞（25%），17 岁青少年的碰撞率显著降低，与 25-59 岁驾驶员相比。18 岁青少年的所有报告碰撞（10%）和受伤碰撞（10%）的碰撞率均显著下降，与 25-59 岁驾驶员相比。18 岁青少年致命碰撞发生率下降 4%，但无统计学意义。16 岁驾驶员致命碰撞发生率也显著下降；然而，这可能与 GDL 无关。观察到 17 岁和 18 岁驾驶员夜间碰撞（所有严重程度）显著减少，白天碰撞率也显著降低，但幅度较小。17 岁和 18 岁青少年载有一名以上乘客的致命碰撞减少幅度较大（分别为 23%和 24%），但无统计学意义。
新泽西州的 17 岁许可年龄消除了 16 岁时的大多数碰撞。就 17 岁驾驶员相对缺乏经验可能对其碰撞率产生负面影响而言，这一影响似乎主要被新泽西州强大的 GDL 系统所削弱。新泽西州的 GDL 系统还降低了 18 岁年龄段的碰撞，而其他州的 GDL 系统并未触及这一年龄段。新泽西州对年轻驾驶员的许可政策组合是全国的典范。
