Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra (VA) 21027, Italy.
J R Soc Interface. 2010 Sep 6;7(50):1355-66. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0026. Epub 2010 Feb 17.
Transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in humans, for instance influenza, occurs by several modes. Respiratory droplets provide a vector of transmission of an infectious pathogen that may contribute to different transmission modes. An epidemiological model incorporating the dynamics of inhalable respiratory droplets is developed to assess their relevance in the infectious process. Inhalable respiratory droplets are divided into respirable droplets, with droplet diameter less than 10 microm, and inspirable droplets, with diameter in the range 10-100 microm: both droplet classes may be inhaled or settle. Droplet dynamics is determined by their physical properties (size), whereas population dynamics is determined by, among other parameters, the pathogen infectivity and the host contact rates. Three model influenza epidemic scenarios, mediated by different airborne or settled droplet classes, are analysed. The scenarios are distinguished by the characteristic times associated with breathing at contact and with hand-to-face contact. The scenarios suggest that airborne transmission, mediated by respirable droplets, provides the dominant transmission mode in middle and long-term epidemics, whereas inspirable droplets, be they airborne or settled, characterize short-term epidemics with high attack rates. The model neglects close-contact transmission by droplet sprays (direct projection onto facial mucous membranes), retaining close-contact transmission by inspirable droplets.
例如流感,人类呼吸道传染病的传播有几种方式。呼吸道飞沫为传染性病原体的传播载体,可能有助于不同的传播方式。本文开发了一个包含可吸入呼吸飞沫动力学的流行病学模型,以评估它们在传染病过程中的相关性。可吸入呼吸飞沫分为可吸入飞沫(直径小于 10 微米)和可吸入飞沫(直径在 10-100 微米之间):这两类飞沫都可能被吸入或沉降。飞沫动力学取决于其物理特性(大小),而人群动力学则取决于病原体的感染力和宿主接触率等参数。分析了三种不同空气传播或沉降飞沫类介导的模型流感流行情景。这些情景通过与接触和手到脸接触相关的特征时间来区分。研究结果表明,由可吸入飞沫介导的空气传播在中长期流行中提供了主要的传播方式,而可吸入飞沫(无论是空气传播还是沉降)则以高攻击率为特征的短期流行。该模型忽略了飞沫喷雾(直接喷射到面部粘膜)的近距离接触传播,保留了可吸入飞沫的近距离接触传播。