Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, Texas A&M University College of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences, College Station, TX 77845-4458, USA.
Prev Vet Med. 2010 May 1;94(3-4):282-8. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.01.015. Epub 2010 Feb 23.
The United States has been free of FMD since the 1920s. Faced with an incursion of FMD virus that might involve wildlife species, it is crucial that appropriate mitigation strategies be applied rapidly to control the disease. Disease spread models can be used to evaluate the design of optimal strategies. Using a previously developed susceptible-infected-recovered geographic automata model (Sirca) to simulate the spread of FMD through white-tailed deer populations in south Texas, we conducted a series of experiments to determine how pre-emptive mitigation strategies applied to white-tailed deer populations might impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of outbreaks following FMD virus incursion. Based on previously derived deer distributions in the two ecoregions found within the study area, simulated outbreaks were evaluated by comparing the median number of deer predicted to be infected and the median area predicted affected for a baseline scenario and 3 mitigation strategies: targeted cull, random cull and targeted depopulation buffer. Substantial differences were observed in the predicted magnitude of outbreaks both by mitigation strategy and by ecoregion: depending on the ecoregion, the creation of a targeted depopulation buffer could reduce the number of deer predicted infected by up to 52%, and the area affected by up to 31%. Results suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion that involves wildlife species, such as white-tailed deer in south Texas, might depend on both where the incursion occurs and the type of pre-emptive mitigation strategy applied.
自 20 世纪 20 年代以来，美国就没有发生过口蹄疫。面对可能涉及野生动物物种的口蹄疫病毒入侵，迅速采取适当的缓解策略来控制疾病至关重要。疾病传播模型可用于评估最佳策略的设计。我们使用先前开发的易感-感染-恢复地理自动机模型 (Sirca) 来模拟口蹄疫通过南德克萨斯州白尾鹿种群的传播，进行了一系列实验，以确定针对白尾鹿种群的先发制人的缓解策略如何影响口蹄疫病毒入侵后的预测爆发规模和分布。根据研究区域内两个生态区中先前得出的鹿分布情况，通过比较预测感染的鹿中位数数量和预测受影响的中位数面积，对模拟爆发进行了评估，这是针对基线情况和 3 种缓解策略进行的：有针对性的扑杀、随机扑杀和有针对性的人口减少缓冲区。通过缓解策略和生态区的不同，观察到爆发的预测规模存在很大差异：根据生态区的不同，创建有针对性的人口减少缓冲区可将预测感染的鹿数量减少多达 52%，并将受影响的面积减少多达 31%。结果表明，涉及野生动物物种（如南德克萨斯州的白尾鹿）的口蹄疫入侵的结果可能取决于入侵发生的地点和采用的先发制人的缓解策略的类型。
