Ward M P, Laffan S W, Highfield L D
Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW 2570, Australia.
Rev Sci Tech. 2011 Aug;30(2):437-46. doi: 10.20506/rst.30.2.2042.
The role that wild and feral animal populations might play in the incursion and spread of important transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD), has received less attention than is warranted by the potential impacts. An artificial life model (Sirca) has been used to investigate this issue in studies based on spatially referenced data sets from southern Texas. An incursion of FMD in which either feral pig or deer populations were infected could result in between 698 and 1557 infected cattle and affect an area of between 166 km2 and 455 km2 after a 100-day period. Although outbreak size in deer populations can be predicted bythe size of the local deer population initially infected, the resulting outbreaks in feral pig populations are less predictable. Also, in the case of deer, the size of potential outbreaks might depend on the season when the incursion occurs. The impact of various mitigation strategies on disease spread has also been investigated. The approach used in the studies reviewed here explicitly incorporates the spatial distribution and relationships between animal populations, providing a new framework to explore potential impacts, costs, and control strategies.
野生动物和野生种群在诸如口蹄疫（FMD）等重要跨界动物疾病的侵入和传播中可能扮演的角色，受到的关注比其潜在影响所应得的要少。在基于得克萨斯州南部空间参考数据集的研究中，已使用一种人工生命模型（Sirca）来调查此问题。口蹄疫的一次侵入，若野猪或鹿种群被感染，在100天的时间段后，可能导致698至1557头感染牛，并影响166平方公里至455平方公里的区域。虽然鹿种群中的疫情规模可通过最初感染的当地鹿群规模来预测，但野猪种群中产生的疫情则较难预测。此外，就鹿而言，潜在疫情的规模可能取决于侵入发生的季节。还研究了各种缓解策略对疾病传播的影响。此处所审查的研究中使用的方法明确纳入了动物种群之间的空间分布和关系，为探索潜在影响、成本和控制策略提供了一个新框架。
