Ward M P, Garner M G, Cowled B D
The University of Sydney, Faculty of Veterinary Science, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, New South Wales, 2570, Australia.
Aust Vet J. 2015 Jan-Feb;93(1-2):4-12. doi: 10.1111/avj.12278.
To use simulation modelling to predict the potential spread and to explore control options for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion in a mixed wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem in northern Australia.
Based on aerial surveys, expert opinion and published data, the wild pig and grazing cattle distributions were simulated. A susceptible-infected-resistant disease-spread model was coded and parameterised according to published literature and expert opinion.
A baseline scenario was simulated in which infection was introduced via wild pigs, with transmission from pigs to cattle and no disease control. Assumptions regarding disease transmission were investigated via sensitivity analyses. Predicted size and length of outbreaks were compared for different control strategies based on movement standstill, surveillance and depopulation.
In most of the simulations, FMD outbreaks were predicted to be ongoing after 6 months, with more cattle herds infected than wild pig herds (median 907 vs. 22, respectively). Assuming only pig-to-pig transmission, the infection routinely died out. In contrast, assuming cattle-to-cattle, cattle-to-pig or pig-to-cattle transmission resulted in FMD establishing and spreading in more than 75% of simulations. A control strategy targeting wild pigs only was not predicted to be successful. Control based on cattle only was successful in eradicating the disease. However, control targeting both pigs and cattle resulted in smaller outbreaks.
If FMD is controlled in cattle in the modelled ecosystem, it is likely to be self-limiting in wild pigs. However, to eradicate disease as quickly as possible, both wild pigs and cattle should be targeted for control.
运用模拟模型预测口蹄疫（FMD）在澳大利亚北部野猪与家牛混合生态系统中可能的传播情况，并探索防控方案。
基于空中调查、专家意见及已发表数据，模拟野猪和放牧牛的分布情况。根据已发表文献和专家意见，编写并设定了一个易感-感染-抗性疾病传播模型的参数。
模拟了一个基线情景，即通过野猪引入感染，疾病在猪与牛之间传播且不采取疾病防控措施。通过敏感性分析研究了有关疾病传播的假设。比较了基于移动停滞、监测和扑杀的不同控制策略下预测的疫情规模和持续时间。
在大多数模拟中，预计口蹄疫疫情在6个月后仍在持续，感染的牛群比野猪群更多（中位数分别为907头和22头）。假设仅猪与猪之间传播，感染通常会自行消失。相反，假设牛与牛之间、牛与猪之间或猪与牛之间传播，则在超过75%的模拟中口蹄疫会传播开来。预计仅针对野猪的控制策略不会成功。仅基于牛的控制措施成功根除了疾病。然而，同时针对猪和牛的控制措施导致的疫情规模较小。
如果在模拟生态系统中控制牛的口蹄疫，在野猪中可能会自我限制。然而，为了尽快根除疾病，应同时针对野猪和牛进行控制。
