Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, and Urban Planning and Design Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Apr 15;44(8):3136-41. doi: 10.1021/es902850q.
Urban planning has been widely applied as a regulatory measure to guide a city's construction and management. It represents official expectations on future population and economic growth and land use over the urban area. No doubt, significant variations often occur between planning schemes and actual development; in particular in China, the world's largest developing country experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization. This in turn leads to difficulty in estimating the environmental consequences of the urban plan. Aiming to quantitatively analyze the uncertain environmental impacts of the urban plan's implementation, this article developed an integrated methodology combining a scenario analysis approach and a stochastic simulation technique for strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Based on industrial development scenarios, Monte Carlo sampling is applied to generate all possibilities of the spatial distribution of newly emerged industries. All related environmental consequences can be further estimated given the industrial distributions as input to environmental quality models. By applying a HSY algorithm, environmentally unacceptable urban growth, regarding both economic development and land use spatial layout, can be systematically identified, providing valuable information to urban planners and decision makers. A case study in Dalian Municipality, Northeast China, is used to illustrate applicability of this methodology. The impacts of Urban Development Plan for Dalian Municipality (2003-2020) (UDP) on atmospheric environment are also discussed in this article.
城市规划作为一种管理措施被广泛应用，以指导城市的建设和管理。它代表了官方对未来城市地区人口和经济增长以及土地利用的期望。毫无疑问，规划方案与实际发展之间经常存在显著差异；特别是在中国，作为世界上最大的发展中国家，中国正在经历快速的城市化和工业化。这反过来又导致难以估计城市规划的环境后果。本文旨在定量分析城市规划实施的不确定环境影响，开发了一种将情景分析方法和随机模拟技术相结合的综合方法，用于战略环境评估（SEA）。基于产业发展情景，运用蒙特卡罗抽样生成新出现产业空间分布的所有可能性。将产业分布作为环境质量模型的输入，可以进一步估算所有相关的环境后果。通过应用 HSY 算法，可以系统地识别出在经济发展和土地利用空间布局方面不可接受的城市增长，为城市规划者和决策者提供有价值的信息。本文以中国东北大连市的一个案例研究说明了该方法的适用性。还讨论了《大连市城市发展规划（2003-2020 年）》（UDP）对大气环境的影响。
