Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Risk Anal. 2010 Apr;30(4):699-707. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01371.x. Epub 2010 Feb 23.
During the first half of 2008, China suffered three natural disasters: a heavy snow storm, an outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease, and a severe earthquake. The aim of the present study is to explore how low-probability/high-consequence events influence overconfidence. In Study 1, opportunity samples were obtained by recruiting residents in three different types of disaster-hit areas to answer a peer-comparison probability judgment questionnaire about 1 month after the corresponding disaster occurred. The performance of 539 participants in disaster-hit areas was compared with that of 142 residents in a nondisaster area. The findings indicate that residents in disaster-hit areas were less overconfident than those in the nondisaster area on both positive and negative events. In Study 2, we surveyed a total of 336 quake-victims 4 and 11 months after the earthquake to examine whether the impact of disasters on overconfidence would decay with time. The resulting data indicate that the disaster victims became more overconfident as time elapsed. The overall findings suggest that low-probability/high-consequence events could make people less overconfident and more rational and seem to serve as a function of debiasing.
2008 年上半年，中国遭受了三次自然灾害：一场大雪灾、手足口病疫情爆发和一场严重的地震。本研究旨在探讨低概率/高后果事件如何影响过度自信。在研究 1 中，通过招募三个受灾地区的居民，在相应灾害发生一个月后，回答一个同伴比较概率判断问卷，获得机会样本。比较了 539 名受灾地区参与者和 142 名非受灾地区居民的表现。结果表明，受灾地区的居民在积极和消极事件上都比非受灾地区的居民不那么过度自信。在研究 2 中，我们在地震发生后 4 个月和 11 个月共调查了 336 名地震灾民，以检验灾难对过度自信的影响是否会随时间衰减。结果数据表明，随着时间的推移，受灾者变得更加过度自信。总体研究结果表明，低概率/高后果事件可能会使人变得不那么过度自信，更加理性，似乎起到了去偏的作用。
