Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.
Bull Math Biol. 2010 Nov;72(8):2004-18. doi: 10.1007/s11538-010-9521-8. Epub 2010 Mar 4.
While cholera has been a recognized disease for two centuries, there is no strategy for its effective control. We formulate a mathematical model to include essential components such as a hyperinfectious, short-lived bacterial state, a separate class for mild human infections, and waning disease immunity. A new result quantifies contributions to the basic reproductive number from multiple infectious classes. Using optimal control theory, parameter sensitivity analysis, and numerical simulations, a cost-effective balance of multiple intervention methods is compared for two endemic populations. Results provide a framework for designing cost-effective strategies for diseases with multiple intervention methods.
尽管霍乱已经被认识了两个世纪，但目前仍没有有效的控制策略。我们构建了一个数学模型，其中包含了一些重要的成分，例如高度传染性、短暂的细菌状态、人类轻度感染的单独类别以及疾病免疫力的衰减。一个新的结果定量了来自多个感染类别的基本再生数的贡献。利用最优控制理论、参数敏感性分析和数值模拟，我们比较了两种地方性流行人群中多种干预方法的成本效益平衡。结果为具有多种干预方法的疾病设计成本效益策略提供了框架。
