小肠梗阻-谁需要手术?一个多变量预测模型。
Small bowel obstruction-who needs an operation? A multivariate prediction model.
机构信息
Division of Trauma, Critical Care, and General Surgery, Mary Brigh 2-810, St. Mary's Hospital, Mayo Clinic, 1216 Second Street SW, Rochester, MN, 55902, USA.
出版信息
World J Surg. 2010 May;34(5):910-9. doi: 10.1007/s00268-010-0479-3.
BACKGROUND
Proper management of small bowel obstruction (SBO) requires a methodology to prevent nontherapeutic laparotomy while minimizing the chance of overlooking strangulation obstruction causing intestinal ischemia. Our aim was to identify preoperative risk factors associated with strangulating SBO and to develop a model to predict the need for operative intervention in the presence of an SBO. Our hypothesis was that free intraperitoneal fluid on computed tomography (CT) is associated with the presence of bowel ischemia and need for exploration.
METHODS
We reviewed 100 consecutive patients with SBO, all of whom had undergone CT that was reviewed by a radiologist blinded to outcome. The need for operative management was confirmed retrospectively by four surgeons based on operative findings and the patient's clinical course.
RESULTS
Patients were divided into two groups: group 1, who required operative management on retrospective review, and group 2 who did not. Four patients who were treated nonoperatively had ischemia or died of malignant SBO and were then included in group 1; two patients who had a nontherapeutic exploration were included in group 2. On univariate analysis, the need for exploration (n = 48) was associated (p < 0.05) with a history of malignancy (29% vs. 12%), vomiting (85% vs. 63%), and CT findings of either free intraperitoneal fluid (67% vs. 31%), mesenteric edema (67% vs. 37%), mesenteric vascular engorgement (85% vs. 67%), small bowel wall thickening (44% vs. 25%) or absence of the "small bowel feces sign" (so-called fecalization) (10% vs. 29%). Ischemia (n = 11) was associated (p < 0.05 each) with peritonitis (36% vs. 1%), free intraperitoneal fluid (82% vs. 44%), serum lactate concentration (2.7 +/- 1.6 vs. 1.3 +/- 0.6 mmol/l), mesenteric edema (91% vs. 46%), closed loop obstruction (27% vs. 2%), pneumatosis intestinalis (18% vs. 0%), and portal venous gas (18% vs. 0%). On multivariate analysis, free intraperitoneal fluid [odds ratio (OR) 3.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-9.9], mesenteric edema (OR 3.59, 95% CI 1.3-9.6), lack of the "small bowel feces sign" (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05-0.68), and a history of vomiting (OR 4.67, 95% CI 1.5-14.4) were independent predictors of the need for operative exploration (p < 0.05 each). The combination of vomiting, no "small bowel feces sign," free intraperitoneal fluid, and mesenteric edema had a sensitivity of 96%, and a positive predictive value of 90% (OR 16.4, 95% CI 3.6-75.4) for requiring exploration.
CONCLUSION
Clinical, laboratory, and radiographic factors should all be considered when making a decision about treatment of SBO. The four clinical features-intraperitoneal free fluid, mesenteric edema, lack of the "small bowel feces sign," history of vomiting-are predictive of requiring operative intervention during the patient's hospital stay and should be factored strongly into the decision-making algorithm for operative versus nonoperative treatment.
背景
小肠梗阻(SBO)的妥善管理需要一种方法,以防止非治疗性剖腹手术,同时最大限度地减少忽视绞窄性肠梗阻引起的肠缺血的机会。我们的目的是确定与绞窄性 SBO 相关的术前危险因素,并建立一种预测 SBO 存在时需要手术干预的模型。我们的假设是,计算机断层扫描(CT)上的游离腹腔积液与肠缺血和需要探查有关。
方法
我们回顾了 100 例连续的 SBO 患者,所有患者均接受了 CT 检查,由一名放射科医生对结果进行了盲法评估。根据手术发现和患者的临床过程,由四名外科医生回顾性确认手术管理的需要。
结果
患者分为两组:第 1 组,回顾性检查需要手术治疗;第 2 组,不需要手术治疗。4 例非手术治疗的患者发生缺血或死于恶性 SBO,然后被纳入第 1 组;2 例非治疗性探查的患者被纳入第 2 组。单因素分析显示,需要手术(n=48)与恶性肿瘤史(29% vs. 12%)、呕吐(85% vs. 63%)和 CT 发现游离腹腔积液(67% vs. 31%)、肠系膜水肿(67% vs. 37%)、肠系膜血管充血(85% vs. 67%)、小肠壁增厚(44% vs. 25%)或缺乏“小肠粪便征”(所谓的粪便化)(10% vs. 29%)相关。缺血(n=11)与腹膜炎(36% vs. 1%)、游离腹腔积液(82% vs. 44%)、血清乳酸浓度(2.7+/-1.6 vs. 1.3+/-0.6mmol/L)、肠系膜水肿(91% vs. 46%)、闭袢性梗阻(27% vs. 2%)、肠内积气(18% vs. 0%)和门静脉积气(18% vs. 0%)相关。多因素分析显示,游离腹腔积液[比值比(OR)3.80,95%置信区间(CI)1.5-9.9]、肠系膜水肿(OR 3.59,95%CI 1.3-9.6)、缺乏“小肠粪便征”(OR 0.19,95%CI 0.05-0.68)和呕吐史(OR 4.67,95%CI 1.5-14.4)是需要手术探查的独立预测因素(p<0.05)。呕吐、无“小肠粪便征”、游离腹腔积液和肠系膜水肿的组合对需要手术的预测具有 96%的敏感性和 90%的阳性预测值(OR 16.4,95%CI 3.6-75.4)。
结论
在决定 SBO 的治疗方案时,应综合考虑临床、实验室和影像学因素。四种临床特征-腹腔游离液、肠系膜水肿、缺乏“小肠粪便征”、呕吐史-可预测患者住院期间需要手术干预,并应强烈纳入手术与非手术治疗的决策算法中。