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2003 年热浪对中国上海死亡率的影响。

The impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality in Shanghai, China.

机构信息

Center for Environment and Health at Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, and College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2010 May 1;408(11):2418-20. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.02.009. Epub 2010 Mar 9.

Abstract

In 2003, Shanghai recorded the hottest summer in over 50years. We investigated the impact on the mortality of a heat wave in 2003 in Shanghai. We calculated excess mortality and rate ratios (RRs) during the heat wave (July 19-August 6, 2003) compared to a reference (non-heatwave) period (June 28-July 9, and August 16-August 22). During the heat wave, the RR of total mortality was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.06-1.20), and the impact was greatest for cardiovascular (RR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.08-1.32) and respiratory (RR=1.23, 95% CI: 1.02-1.48) mortality. Gender did not make a statistically significant difference for the heat-wave impact. Elderly people (over 65years) were most vulnerable to the heat wave. Our analysis showed that the 2003 heat wave had a substantial effect on mortality in Shanghai. Public health programs should be implemented to prevent heat wave-related health problems in the city.

摘要

2003 年,上海创下了 50 多年来最热的夏天纪录。我们调查了 2003 年上海热浪对死亡率的影响。我们计算了热浪期间(2003 年 7 月 19 日至 8 月 6 日)与参考期(非热浪期:6 月 28 日至 7 月 9 日和 8 月 16 日至 8 月 22 日)相比的超额死亡率和比率(RR)。在热浪期间,总死亡率的 RR 为 1.13(95%CI:1.06-1.20),心血管(RR=1.19,95%CI:1.08-1.32)和呼吸道(RR=1.23,95%CI:1.02-1.48)死亡率的影响最大。性别对热浪的影响没有统计学意义。老年人(65 岁以上)对热浪最为脆弱。我们的分析表明,2003 年热浪对上海的死亡率有很大影响。应实施公共卫生计划,以预防城市热浪相关的健康问题。

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