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[德国动物密集地区口蹄疫的传播风险——专家调查结果]

[Transmission risk for foot-and-mouth-disease in an animal-densed region in Germany--results from an expert survey].

作者信息

Kreienbrock Lothar, Willms Holger, Selhorst Thomas, Ovelhey Amely, Haas Ludwig, Moennig Volker, Kramer Matthias

机构信息

Institut for Biometrie, Epidemiologie und Informationsverarbeitung, WHO Collaborating Centre for Research and Training in Veterinary Public Health, Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover.

出版信息

Berl Munch Tierarztl Wochenschr. 2010 Mar-Apr;123(3-4):89-95.

Abstract

Due to its strong impact on economics and trading the Foot-and-Mouth-Disease (FMD) is one of the most important animal diseases within animal husbandry. Because no recent specific field observation for FMD exists in Germany, the risk assessment needs validated epidemiological models to prepare decision tools for FMD-outbreak management. The aim of this investigation was therefore to prepare a risk assessment for different transmission pathways to use for FMD-models in future. To prepare a FMD-transmission model the risk was assessed within a highly animal densed region in Germany by means of an expert survey. For each transmission pathway an assessment was given in the categories low, medium, high and severe. Some pathways were rated homogenously between the experts, but some were rated heterogeneously. Therefore areas were identified with common rating as well as areas, where further investigations to specify FMD-models are necessary.

摘要

由于口蹄疫(FMD)对经济和贸易有重大影响,它是畜牧业中最重要的动物疾病之一。由于德国最近没有对口蹄疫进行具体的实地观察,风险评估需要经过验证的流行病学模型,以便为口蹄疫疫情管理准备决策工具。因此,本调查的目的是为不同的传播途径准备风险评估,以供未来的口蹄疫模型使用。为了建立口蹄疫传播模型,通过专家调查在德国一个动物密度很高的地区评估了风险。对于每个传播途径,都在低、中、高和严重这几个类别中给出了评估。一些途径在专家之间得到了一致的评级,但有些则评级不一。因此,确定了评级一致的区域以及需要进一步调查以明确口蹄疫模型的区域。

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