Bar Ilan University, Israel.
Psychiatry Res. 2010 May 15;177(1-2):55-9. doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2010.02.019. Epub 2010 Mar 23.
This article examined suicide attempt rates at first psychiatric hospitalization and risk factors for subsequent suicide attempts over the early course of schizophrenia in national population-based data. Data were extracted from the National Psychiatric Hospitalization Case Registry of the State of Israel that contains all first psychiatric admissions with schizophrenia 1989-1992 and were followed up to 1996 (N=2293). Attempted suicide rates were: 8.5% (n=196) at the time of first psychiatric hospitalization and 6.6% (n=151) over the follow-up period of 4 to 7 years. Of those with a suicide attempt at first admission, 31.6% (n=62) made a subsequent suicide attempt during the follow-up period (OR=10.44, 95% CIs=7.22 to 15.09). Risk profiles were derived using recursive partitioning to predict sub-groups at risk of a subsequent suicide attempt. Those characterized by an attempt at the time of first admission were college educated, female and not married (45.9% (17/37), OR=13.46, 95% CIs=6.89 to 26.3). The risk profiles together correctly classified 90.7% (137/151) of subsequent suicide attempts. Suicide attempts at first admission and premorbid years of education have long-term prognostic utility and risk profiles are available.
本文利用以色列全国性精神病住院病例登记库的数据,对首发精神科住院患者自杀未遂率及首发后早期精神分裂症患者自杀未遂的风险因素进行了研究。该登记库包含了 1989-1992 年间所有首次因精神分裂症住院的病例,并随访至 1996 年(共 2293 例)。自杀未遂率为:首次精神科住院时为 8.5%(196 例),4-7 年随访期间为 6.6%(151 例)。在首次入院时有自杀未遂的患者中,31.6%(62 例)在随访期间再次自杀(OR=10.44,95%CI=7.22-15.09)。采用递归分区法来预测随后自杀未遂的亚组,从而得出风险特征。首次入院时就有自杀企图的患者具有以下特征:受过大学教育、女性和未婚(45.9%(17/37),OR=13.46,95%CI=6.89-26.3)。风险特征能够正确分类 90.7%(137/151)的随后自杀未遂。首次入院时的自杀企图和发病前的受教育年限具有长期预后价值,且可提供风险特征。