Department of Environmental Studies, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
Q Rev Biol. 2010 Mar;85(1):27-55. doi: 10.1086/650284.
In recent decades, malaria has become established in zones at the margin of its previous distribution, especially in the highlands of East Africa. Studies in this region have sparked a heated debate over the importance of climate change in the territorial expansion of malaria, where positions range from its neglect to the reification of correlations as causes. Here, we review studies supporting and rebutting the role of climatic change as a driving force for highland invasion by malaria. We assessed the conclusions from both sides of the argument and found that evidence for the role of climate in these dynamics is robust. However, we also argue that over-emphasizing the importance of climate is misleading for setting a research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change impacts on emerging malaria patterns. We review alternative drivers for the emergence of this disease and highlight the problems still calling for research if the multidimensional nature of malaria is to be adequately tackled. We also contextualize highland malaria as an ongoing evolutionary process. Finally, we present Schmalhausen's law, which explains the lack of resilience in stressed systems, as a biological principle that unifies the importance of climatic and other environmental factors in driving malaria patterns across different spatio-temporal scales.
近几十年来，疟疾已在其先前分布范围的边缘地区立足，特别是在东非高地。该地区的研究引发了一场激烈的争论，即气候变化在疟疾的地域扩张中究竟有多重要，观点从忽视气候变化到将相关性具体化作为原因不等。在这里，我们回顾了支持和反驳气候变化作为疟疾向高地侵袭驱动力的研究。我们评估了争论双方的结论，发现支持气候在这些动态中起作用的证据是可靠的。然而，我们也认为，过分强调气候的重要性会误导研究议程的制定，即使该议程试图了解气候变化对新出现的疟疾模式的影响。我们审查了这种疾病出现的其他驱动因素，并强调了如果要充分解决疟疾的多层面性质，仍需要研究的问题。我们还将高地疟疾作为一个正在进行的进化过程来描述。最后，我们提出了 Schmalhausen 定律，该定律解释了在压力系统中缺乏弹性的原因，这是一个将气候和其他环境因素在不同时空尺度上驱动疟疾模式的重要性统一起来的生物学原理。
