Chambers David W
J Am Coll Dent. 2009 Winter;76(4):55-62.
It is human nature to overestimate how rational we are, both in general and even when we are trying to be. Such irrationality is not random, and the search for and explanation of patterns of fuzzy thinking is the basis for a new academic discipline known as behavioral economics. Examples are given of some of the best understood of our foibles, including prospect theory, framing, anchoring, salience, confirmation bias, superstition, and ownership. Humans have two cognitive systems: one conscious, deliberate, slow, and rational; the other fast, pattern-based, emotionally tinged, and intuitive. Each is subject to its own kind of error. In the case of rational thought, we tend to exaggerate our capacity; for intuition, we fail to train it or recognize contexts where it is inappropriate. Humans are especially poor at estimating probabilities, or even understanding what they are. It is a common human failing to reason backwards from random outcomes that are favorable to beliefs about our power to predict the future. Five suggestions are offered for thinking within our means.
高估我们自身的理性程度是人类的天性，无论是总体而言，还是在我们试图展现理性的时候。这种非理性并非随机产生，探寻并解释模糊思维的模式是一门名为行为经济学的新学科的基础。文中给出了一些我们最为熟知的弱点示例，包括前景理论、框架效应、锚定效应、显著性、证实性偏差、迷信以及所有权。人类有两种认知系统：一种是有意识的、深思熟虑的、缓慢的且理性的；另一种是快速的、基于模式的、带有情感色彩的且直观的。每种系统都有其自身的错误类型。在理性思维方面，我们往往会夸大自身的能力；对于直觉，我们未能加以训练，或者没有认识到其不适用的情境。人类在估计概率甚至理解概率是什么方面尤其糟糕。从有利于我们预测未来能力的信念的随机结果进行反向推理是人类常见的错误。文中提供了五条在我们能力范围内进行思考的建议。
