Stroke. 2010 Jul;41(7):1552-4. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.110.581363. Epub 2010 May 20.
Lifetime risk (LTR) is an epidemiologic measure that expresses the probability of disease in the remaining lifetime for an index age. The LTR for stroke has not been reported for the Japanese population.
We included all participants from the Suita Study who were cardiovascular disease-free at baseline. Age (in years) was used as the time scale. Age-specific stroke incidence and all-cause mortality were calculated with the person-year method, and we estimated the sex- and index age-specific LTRs of first-ever stroke and its subtypes, taking into account the competing risk of death.
We followed up 5498 participants from 1989 to 2005 for a total of 67 475 person-years. At age 55 years, the LTR for stroke, after accounting for competing risks of death, was 18.3% for men and 19.6% for women. The LTR for cerebral infarction was 14.6% for men and 15.5% for women, and the LTR for intracerebral hemorrhage was 2.4% for men and 1.4% for women at the index age of 55 years. The LTR for stroke remained similar across other index ages of 45, 55, and 65 years.
The observed probabilities illustrate that approximately 1 in 5 men and women of middle age will experience stroke in their remaining lifetime. This easy understandable information can be used as an important index to assist in public health education and planning.
终身风险（Lifetime Risk，LTR）是一种流行病学指标，用于表示在指数年龄时的剩余寿命内发生疾病的概率。日本人群的中风终身风险尚未报道。
我们纳入了基线时无心血管疾病的所有 Suita 研究参与者。年龄（岁）用作时间尺度。采用人年法计算特定年龄的中风发病率和全因死亡率，并考虑死亡的竞争风险，估计首次中风及其亚型的性别和指数年龄特定 LTR。
我们在 1989 年至 2005 年期间对 5498 名参与者进行了随访，总计 67475 人年。在 55 岁时，考虑到死亡的竞争风险，男性的中风终身风险为 18.3%，女性为 19.6%。男性的脑梗死终身风险为 14.6%，女性为 15.5%，而在 55 岁的指数年龄时，男性的脑出血终身风险为 2.4%，女性为 1.4%。在其他指数年龄 45、55 和 65 岁时，中风的终身风险保持相似。
观察到的概率表明，大约每 5 名中年男性和女性中就有 1 人会在剩余的寿命中经历中风。这种易于理解的信息可用作公共卫生教育和规划的重要指标。
