Lifetime risk of stroke in Japan.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Lifetime risk (LTR) is an epidemiologic measure that expresses the probability of disease in the remaining lifetime for an index age. The LTR for stroke has not been reported for the Japanese population.

METHODS

We included all participants from the Suita Study who were cardiovascular disease-free at baseline. Age (in years) was used as the time scale. Age-specific stroke incidence and all-cause mortality were calculated with the person-year method, and we estimated the sex- and index age-specific LTRs of first-ever stroke and its subtypes, taking into account the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

We followed up 5498 participants from 1989 to 2005 for a total of 67 475 person-years. At age 55 years, the LTR for stroke, after accounting for competing risks of death, was 18.3% for men and 19.6% for women. The LTR for cerebral infarction was 14.6% for men and 15.5% for women, and the LTR for intracerebral hemorrhage was 2.4% for men and 1.4% for women at the index age of 55 years. The LTR for stroke remained similar across other index ages of 45, 55, and 65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed probabilities illustrate that approximately 1 in 5 men and women of middle age will experience stroke in their remaining lifetime. This easy understandable information can be used as an important index to assist in public health education and planning.