用于评估虫媒病毒传播风险的蚊子感染率估计中的误差源。
Sources of error in the estimation of mosquito infection rates used to assess risk of arbovirus transmission.
机构信息
Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL, USA.
出版信息
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2010 Jun;82(6):1172-84. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0323.
Abstract
Infection rate is an estimate of the prevalence of arbovirus infection in a mosquito population. It is assumed that when infection rate increases, the risk of arbovirus transmission to humans and animals also increases. We examined some of the factors that can invalidate this assumption. First, we used a model to illustrate how the proportion of mosquitoes capable of virus transmission, or infectious, is not a constant fraction of the number of infected mosquitoes. Thus, infection rate is not always a straightforward indicator of risk. Second, we used a model that simulated the process of mosquito sampling, pooling, and virus testing and found that mosquito infection rates commonly underestimate the prevalence of arbovirus infection in a mosquito population. Infection rate should always be used in conjunction with other surveillance indicators (mosquito population size, age structure, weather) and historical baseline data when assessing the risk of arbovirus transmission.
摘要
感染率是蚊虫种群中 arbovirus 感染流行率的估计值。通常认为，当感染率增加时，arbovirus 向人类和动物传播的风险也会增加。我们研究了一些可能使这一假设失效的因素。首先，我们使用模型来说明能够传播病毒的蚊子比例，即传染性，并不总是感染蚊子数量的固定分数。因此，感染率并不总是风险的直接指标。其次，我们使用了一个模拟蚊子采样、混合和病毒检测过程的模型，发现蚊子感染率通常低估了蚊虫种群中 arbovirus 感染的流行率。在评估 arbovirus 传播风险时，感染率应始终与其他监测指标（蚊子种群数量、年龄结构、天气）和历史基线数据结合使用。
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