Sverre J M, Laake P
Department of Geriatric Medicine, Ullevaal Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
Epidemiology. 1991 May;2(3):182-7. doi: 10.1097/00001648-199105000-00004.
During the last few decades, the citizens of most western countries have experienced an increased expectation of life. The rate of this change differs for males and females. We evaluated reasons for this pattern, using a Poisson model, with age, period, and cohort effects applied to vital statistics data from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Norway. The data comprised the total Norwegian population aged 45 to 104 years who died in the period from 1966 until 1986. Differential changes in life expectancy for the elderly are explained by differences in sex-specific cohort effects. We also observed an extra-Poisson variation, or overdispersion, in the distribution for females.
在过去几十年里，大多数西方国家的公民预期寿命有所提高。这种变化的速度在男性和女性中有所不同。我们使用泊松模型评估了这种模式的原因，将年龄、时期和队列效应应用于挪威中央统计局的人口动态统计数据。数据包括1966年至1986年期间死亡的45至104岁的挪威总人口。老年人预期寿命的差异变化是由特定性别的队列效应差异来解释的。我们还观察到女性分布中存在泊松过度离散，即过度分散。
