Animal Health Department, Complutense University of Madrid, Av. Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain.
Prev Vet Med. 2010 Aug 1;96(1-2):19-29. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.05.015. Epub 2010 Jul 1.
A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate the spread of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the Castile-and-Leon (CyL) region of Spain. The model was fitted using information available on premises demographics and on assumptions for animal movements, indirect contacts, and airborne exposure. Control measures dictated by Spanish and European Union regulations constituted a reference strategy to which six alternative control strategies were compared. For the reference strategy, the median (95% PI) numbers of infected, depopulated, and quarantined premises were 141 (2-1099), 164 (4-1302), and 334 (31-2059), respectively. Depopulation and vaccination of premises within a radius of <1km and <3km, respectively, around infected premises significantly (p-value<0.001) decreased the number of infected premises, compared to the reference scenario. Results presented here will contribute to the revision, design, and implementation of contingency plans and programs for prevention and control of FMD epidemics in Spain.
采用空间随机模型模拟了西班牙卡斯蒂利亚-莱昂（CyL）地区口蹄疫（FMD）的传播情况。该模型使用了有关畜舍人口统计数据和动物运动、间接接触和空气传播暴露假设的信息进行拟合。西班牙和欧盟法规规定的控制措施构成了参考策略，将其与六种替代控制策略进行了比较。对于参考策略，感染、清空和隔离畜舍的中位数（95%PI）数量分别为 141（2-1099）、164（4-1302）和 334（31-2059）。与参考方案相比，在感染畜舍周围 1km 和 3km 范围内清空和接种畜舍的措施显著（p 值<0.001）降低了感染畜舍的数量。本文的结果将有助于修订、设计和实施西班牙口蹄疫疫情的应急计划和方案，以预防和控制疫情。
