Halasa Tariq, Græsbøll Kaare, Denwood Matthew, Christensen Lasse Engbo, Kirkeby Carsten
Section for Animal Welfare and Disease Control, Institute of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark.
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark.
Front Vet Sci. 2020 Aug 25;7:513. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2020.00513. eCollection 2020.
The worldwide outbreak of Sars-CoV-2 resulted in modelers from diverse fields being called upon to help predict the spread of the disease, resulting in many new collaborations between different institutions. We here present our experience with bringing our skills as veterinary disease modelers to bear on the field of human epidemiology, building models as tools for decision makers, and bridging the gap between the medical and veterinary fields. We describe and compare the key steps taken in modeling the Sars-CoV-2 outbreak: criteria for model choices, model structure, contact structure between individuals, transmission parameters, data availability, model validation, and disease management. Finally, we address how to improve on the contingency infrastructure available for Sars-CoV-2.
严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（Sars-CoV-2）在全球范围内的爆发，使得来自不同领域的建模人员被召集起来，以帮助预测该疾病的传播，这促成了不同机构之间的许多新合作。在此，我们介绍了我们作为兽医疾病建模人员，将技能应用于人类流行病学领域的经验，构建模型作为决策者的工具，并弥合医学和兽医领域之间的差距。我们描述并比较了在对Sars-CoV-2爆发进行建模时所采取的关键步骤：模型选择标准、模型结构、个体之间的接触结构、传播参数、数据可用性、模型验证以及疾病管理。最后，我们探讨了如何改进现有的Sars-CoV-2应急基础设施。
