Institute of Applied Geosciences, Technical University Darmstadt, Germany.
High Alt Med Biol. 2010 Summer;11(2):147-51. doi: 10.1089/ham.2009.1079.
The lifetime risk of a fatal mountain accident among elite European alpine mountaineers and its time trends are determined by studying a fixed cohort of 390 elite mountaineers listed in the Encyclopaedia of the Alps (Hiebler, 1977). At publication of the encyclopaedia, 158 individuals were still living and were followed up until the end of 2008. The crude lifetime risk of a fatal accident for elite mountaineers is 0.203 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.165 to 0.246). The difference in mortality between male (0.207; 95% CI: 0.168 to 0.251) and female mountaineers (0.118; 95% CI: 0.033 to 0.343) is not statistically significant. No fatal accidents occurred among elite mountaineers born before 1820. For the birth cohort from 1820 to 1949, the lifetime risk of a fatal accident (male mountaineers only) increased with time from 0.069 (95% CI, 0.019 to 0.220) to 0.375 (95% CI, 0.212 to 0.573). For all time strata, the highest risk of a fatal mountain accident was observed at an age of 30 to 39 yr. The high mortality among elite mountaineers clearly demonstrates that the limits of human performance are reached by these activities. The high risks should be communicated and should motivate risk-reduction efforts for this highly exposed subgroup of mountaineers.
对列入《阿尔卑斯山百科全书》（Hiebler，1977）的 390 名精英登山运动员进行固定队列研究，确定了欧洲精英阿尔卑斯登山运动员致命山地事故的终生风险及其时间趋势。在百科全书出版时，有 158 人仍然在世，并跟踪随访至 2008 年底。精英登山运动员致命事故的终生风险为 0.203[95%置信区间（CI），0.165 至 0.246]。男性（0.207；95%CI：0.168 至 0.251）和女性（0.118；95%CI：0.033 至 0.343）登山运动员之间的死亡率差异无统计学意义。1820 年以前出生的精英登山运动员没有发生致命事故。对于 1820 年至 1949 年出生的队列，男性登山运动员致命事故的终生风险随着时间的推移而增加，从 0.069（95%CI，0.019 至 0.220）增加到 0.375（95%CI，0.212 至 0.573）。在所有时间分层中，30 至 39 岁年龄组致命山地事故风险最高。精英登山运动员的高死亡率清楚地表明，这些活动达到了人类表现的极限。高风险应得到沟通，并应激励这一高度暴露的登山运动员亚组减少风险的努力。
