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一些具有非线性发病率的流行病学模型。

Some epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence.

作者信息

Hethcote H W, van den Driessche P

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa, Iowa City 52242.

出版信息

J Math Biol. 1991;29(3):271-87. doi: 10.1007/BF00160539.

Abstract

Epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates can have very different dynamic behaviors than those with the usual bilinear incidence rate. The first model considered here includes vital dynamics and a disease process where susceptibles become exposed, then infectious, then removed with temporary immunity and then susceptible again. When the equilibria and stability are investigated, it is found that multiple equilibria exist for some parameter values and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation from the larger endemic equilibrium. Many results analogous to those in the first model are obtained for the second model which has a delay in the removed class but no exposed class.

摘要

具有非线性发病率的流行病学模型可能具有与通常双线性发病率模型截然不同的动态行为。这里考虑的第一个模型包括人口动态和一个疾病过程,即易感者先变为暴露者,然后变为感染者,接着因获得暂时免疫而被移除,之后再次变为易感者。在研究平衡点和稳定性时,发现对于某些参数值存在多个平衡点,并且通过霍普夫分岔,从较大的地方病平衡点可能会产生周期解。对于第二个模型,即移除类中有延迟但无暴露类的模型,得到了许多与第一个模型类似的结果。

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