Department of Applied Economics, National Chung-Hsing University, 250 Kuo-Kuang Road, Taichung 40246, Taiwan.
Public Health. 2010 Aug;124(8):452-9. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2010.04.002. Epub 2010 Jul 14.
H5N1 is one of the avian influenza virus subtypes that has the potential to evolve into a global pandemic that could cause millions of human deaths and great economic losses. Cases involving humans have occurred in 15 countries. Costly interventions have been used by governments and health organisations. Thus, a challenging question arises regarding how many cases of the disease may actually have been prevented as a result of such interventions.
This paper answers such a question by applying a statistical model to the 2006-January 2009 outbreak in Egypt. Egypt was chosen as it had the highest number of human avian influenza cases outside Asia, and the second highest number in that period worldwide.
Brookmeyer and Blades' statistical model was applied. The sensitivities of the estimated number of human cases and exposure dates to the assumed incubation period, the delay in intervention and the coverage/effectiveness of the intervention were investigated.
In the absence of intervention, it appears that the outbreak could have been approximately 1.5 times as large, but it is unlikely it would have exceeded 150 cases.
The results underscore the importance of early detection of an outbreak and intervention, together with effective public health control measures.
H5N1 是一种禽流感病毒亚型，有潜力演变成一种可能导致数百万人死亡和巨大经济损失的全球大流行疾病。涉及人类的病例已经发生在 15 个国家。政府和卫生组织已经采取了昂贵的干预措施。因此，出现了一个具有挑战性的问题，即由于这些干预措施，实际上可能预防了多少病例。
本文通过将统计模型应用于 2006 年 1 月至 2009 年在埃及的暴发，回答了这样一个问题。选择埃及是因为它是亚洲以外发生人类禽流感病例最多的国家，也是该时期全球第二多的国家。
应用了布鲁克迈尔和布拉兹的统计模型。研究了估计的人类病例数和暴露日期对假设潜伏期、干预延迟以及干预的覆盖率/有效性的敏感性。
如果没有干预，疫情可能会扩大约 1.5 倍，但不太可能超过 150 例。
研究结果强调了早期发现疫情和干预的重要性，以及有效的公共卫生控制措施。
