National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Jun;139(6):927-36. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810001901. Epub 2010 Aug 9.
Infectious gastroenteritis is a common illness in Australia as elsewhere. Data from a year-long national gastroenteritis survey in 2001-2002 showed that gastroenteritis was more common in the northern and hotter part of Australia. These data were used to quantify associations between local weather variables and gastroenteritis in people aged >5 years while controlling for socioeconomic status. A distributed lag model was used to examine the influence of weather over a period of days prior to an event and the maximal effect was found at a lag of 2-5 days. The total effect over the preceding week indicated a relative increase from baseline in the probability of gastroenteritis of 2·48% (95% CI 1·01-3·97) for each degree rise (°C) over that period. Given the very high burden of gastroenteritis, this represents a substantial effect at the population level and has relevance for health predictions due to climate change.
传染性肠胃炎在澳大利亚和其他地方一样是一种常见疾病。2001-2002 年为期一年的全国肠胃炎调查数据显示，肠胃炎在澳大利亚北部和较热地区更为常见。这些数据被用来量化年龄>5 岁人群中当地天气变量与肠胃炎之间的关联，同时控制社会经济地位。分布滞后模型用于检查在事件发生前几天内天气的影响，发现最大影响出现在滞后 2-5 天。在过去一周内的总效应表明，与基线相比，在此期间每升高 1 度（°C），肠胃炎的概率相对增加 2.48%（95%CI 1.01-3.97）。鉴于肠胃炎的负担非常大，这在人群层面上代表了一个很大的影响，并且由于气候变化对健康预测具有相关性。
