International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2010 Sep 27;365(1554):2779-91. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0133.
The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.
到 2050 年，世界人口总数可能从目前的 70 亿增长到 80 亿到 100 亿。这种不确定性是由于世界不同地区未来生育率和死亡率趋势的未知。但是，人口的年轻结构以及在非洲和西亚大部分地区生育率仍然非常高的事实，使得人口增加至少一个亿几乎是肯定的。实际上，所有的增长都将发生在发展中世界。在本世纪下半叶，人口稳定和下降可能开始。除了未来的人口规模，人口的年龄、性别、教育程度和居住地分布对研究未来的粮食安全具有特殊意义。本文详细讨论了人口预测中不同的相关维度，并评估了当前全球人口预测中使用的方法和假设，特别是联合国和 IIASA 所做的预测。
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